NBA Picks Value Lies in Spread for Kings vs. Nuggets

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, November 3, 2014 6:26 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 6:26 PM UTC

SBR offers up their free NBA picks for tonight's matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings.

Read our NBA Picks of the Day article for more free plays.

Opening NBA odds first opened the Nuggets as 8 point favorites, but early action has been that number bet down to 7 at most betting shops. The total has also fallen a point, with most online sportsbooks now offering an Over/Under of 202.

The long-suffering Sacramento Kings are off to their best start in years at 2-1 SU ATS.  At the close of 2013, Sacramento had a typical 28-54 SU mark, 3rd worse in the Western conference.  It should come as no surprise to long-time NBA aficionados that the Kings last season were an identical 28-54 SU, again finishing 3rd worst in the Western conference.  Defense has long been a challenge for Sacramento, as indicated by the fact that in those two seasons, the Kings allowed 104 PPG.  This is not something new for Sacramento, who ending last season, had a defensive record that saw foes shoot an NBA best 47.2% against the Kings in the last 8 years.    

This year has seen a dramatic turn in fortunes by Sacramento.  Through 3 games of the current season, Sacramento is allowing just 40.7% from the field, 28.6% from the arc and only 93 PPG.  Most impressive is that these numbers have against winning Western conference teams, Golden St., Portland and the LA Clippers.  On Friday night, Sacramento upended Portland (103-94) as 5 point home dog.  Yesterday afternoon, the Kings traveled to face the LAC, promptly pulling a 98-92 upset.  Note that these were a pair of teams who went deep into the NBA playoffs last May.  Also note, that the Kings have allowed none of those 3 teams to score more than 95 points.  However, NBA underdogs, following consecutive upsets, are a low percentage play following those shocking victories.  We all know how fragile the egos of this team are.  Right now, Cousins is averaging 27/13, while Rudy Gay is averaging 26 PPG.  When dissension begins to creep, life will not be so smooth on the road for the Kings. After their Sunday night contest vs. the Clippers, they now must travel to altitude to face the Denver Nuggets. 

This is a Denver team who has owned Sacramento on this floor, winning 9 of the previous 10 games against the Kings at this site.  In their opening game on Wednesday night, the Nuggets played solid, if not spectacular ball in an 89-79 victory on this court over Detroit.  Clearly, they were over confident at OKC on Saturday night, once the realization sunk in that the Thunder were without Durant and Westbrook.  They were shocked by the eventual 102-91 defeat.  But, home/road dichotomies have been nothing new over the years for the Nuggets. In 2013, Denver was 57-25, going 38-3 at home but 19-22 away.  Though Denver fell to 36-46 last season, they still won 8 more home games than road. 

Early season NBA handicapping is clear on the reversal in this game.  Game 3 NBA teams, who posted 30 or more victories last season, are a better than 75% ATS proposition, if they lost as a favorite in their previous game.  Combined with the fact that the Kings are off consecutive underdog victories vs. quality opponents and now must travel to altitude, it sets up outstanding value when backing the Denver Nuggets with your NBA picks tonight.

Think the Kings-Nuggets total is worth a look? You are not alone. Join in the discussion here.

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