NBA Picks: The Value Lies With Road Dog Thunder To Upset Warriors

Monday, May 30, 2016 3:00 PM GMT

Klay Thompson had a monster night and OKC is now on their heels. Odds makers have come out making Golden State a solid home favorite but can OKC bounce back?

The NBA odds have made OKC a +7 underdog like at Pinnacle sports -110. For my NBA pick I'm going to take the points with the Thunder and although I don't think they win tonight I think they take it down to the wire. This has all the makings of a nail biter that goes down to the final few minutes.


 

OKC Thunder
In game six OKC shot 42% from the field but just 13% from distance with 15 turnovers highlighted with six in the final minutes of the game. The turnovers were of course a main issue down the stretch as they simply did not get off any quality shot but seemed to be only trying to protect the lead.

The statistic that really stands out though is that 13% from distance as OKC hit just 3-23 from that range and neither Kevin Durant nor Russell Westbrook played particularly well in the final quarter. They did just about everything I thought they would do coming back home like outscoring Golden State 52-28 in the paint and out rebounding them 49-43. However, what they didn't do well was protect the ball when they needed to and, as mentioned, knockdown some shots from beyond the arc.

Now odds makers have made them quite the underdog traveling back to Golden State for this final game of the series. Despite the crushing loss in game six, a game they definitely should've won, I like for OKC to keep this one close most of the way but ultimately for Golden State to probably win. I believe there is good value in taking the points in what has been a very tight series.

 

Golden State Warriors
In game six Golden State shot just 41.4% from the field but an incredible 48% from distance highlighted by Klay Thompson knocking down and NBA playoff record 11 three-pointers. On that statistic alone I think there is a good reason to back OKC in this spot as it took a record-breaking performance and a complete meltdown by OKC for Golden State to pull off the win. OKC was in charge for 3½ quarters but ultimately the defending champs found a way and showed their mettle by outscoring OKC 33-18 in the fourth quarter. Breaking down the statistics though what we find is a game that was tightly contested throughout and both these teams have been battling hard to win this series.

The question now remains can OKC bounce back from this heartbreaking defeat? I believe they can because they do matchup with Golden State very well and I expect for them to play with a nothing to lose attitude now against the Warriors. I don't anticipate for OKC to shoot so poorly from beyond the nor for Golden State to not hit nearly 50% from distance. Most likely the Warriors win this game but seven points is a bit too much in my opinion, this is going to be an amazing game seven.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3016261, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Thunder +7
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle