NBA Picks: Underdog Blazers To Cover ATS When Facing Warriors

Jordan Sharp

Friday, March 11, 2016 6:49 PM GMT

The Blazers and Warriors are set to hook up from Oracle Arena, and the NBA Odds have the Warriors as -12 ½ favorites in this one, with a total of 226 ½. 

Baby Dame vs. Chef Curry
If there is one storyline everyone will be talking about for this game tonight, it’s Stephen Curry playing host to Damian Lillard. Both players have been on fire since the All Star Break, and while one player gets all the media attention, and we can’t go an hour without a new story or television segment about him, the other is quietly having a huge second half to the season, and is probably just a little mad still about not making the All Star team.

Tonight though, this battle will go a long way in deciding whom to play ATS in this one. On one hand, if Curry is outdueling Lillard, there is no question that the Warriors will run away with this one, even as -12 ½ favorites. However, if Lillard is matching Curry this evening, and C.J. McCollum is playing well against Klay Thompson, the Blazers could easily stay with the Warriors in this one, even playing on the road in one of the leagues toughest venues.

The Blazers have of course beaten up on the Warriors once this season, but that was right after the All Star Break in Portland. The Warriors dominated the Blazers in their only other meeting this season, also in Portland, but even with the Blazers on the road tonight, they have been playing very well on the road. If they can continue that this evening, Portland ATS is the play.

 

The Sharp Pick
The NBA odds for this one have dropped some since the line opened at -13 ½ in favor of the Warriors, and I am following the line movement and going with the Blazers. They have shown already this season that they can beat the Warriors, and considering they have now covered six of their last eight road games ATS, I have faith in Portland to match the Warriors tonight, and possibly keep this one within single digits.

The Blazers are 19-14 ATS this season when playing away from home, and they are 14-10 ATS when playing on the road as an underdog. On top of that, while the Blazers are only 1-2 ATS this season when playing as a double-digit road underdog, The Warriors on the other hand are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as double-digit favorites both home and away, and with the season wearing on, and with the Dubs probably looking ahead to the playoffs, blowing teams out is apparently getting harder. Since the beginning of the 2016 calendar year, the Dubs are only 3-6 ATS as double-digit home favorites, and a lot of those were against worse teams than the Blazers.

On top of all of this is the Warriors’ recent downturn ATS. While they haven’t completely fallen off as a good ATS play, the Warriors are only 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games this past month, and while they have been playing mostly on the road in that stretch, they are still only 3-3 ATS in their last six home games. The Blazers on the other hand are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games heading into tonight, and, for my NBA Pick, I think they keep this one close enough to get the cover here too.

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NBA Pick: Blazers +12 ½
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline