NBA Picks: Two Exciting O/U Plays That Are Worthy Of Your Bets

Nikki Adams

Saturday, April 23, 2016 5:35 PM GMT

NBA betting heats up tonight as the playoffs continue with a verve and swagger. We preview the Western Conference matchups along with our top NBA picks for the totals you simply must have tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunders vs. Dallas Mavericks
Series 2-1

The first round playoff series between Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks is heating up beyond market expectations, which cornered it firmly in the third seed’s camp at the start. After all, the Thunder swept the regular season series 4-0 over the Mavericks. Contrary to market expectations, the series is poised delicately 2-1 with the Mavericks looking to draw level and make it a dogfight.

Oklahoma City opened the series with a comprehensive beat down of the Mavericks, outshooting the visitors 108-70 to come through as the 12.5-point home chalk easily, all while the game came UNDER the 206 point total. Reacting to the first game, the market installed the Mavericks in game 2 as the whopping +14 road underdogs on the NBA odds board and, in turn, lowered the total to 203 points – an indication they expected more of the same, obviously. So you can imagine the surprise when the Mavericks stunned the hosts in a narrow 85-84 win that knotted the series 1-1, not to mention the visitors cashed as the 14-point road underdogs for their backers while Under bettors cashed in total betting. Game 3, however, saw Oklahoma City restore the pecking order behind a walloping 131-102 win in Dallas, cashing as the 9.5-point away favorites and cracking the 198.5 total.

Before us is game 4 which has the Thunder, once again, favored anywhere from 8.5-to 9-points depending on your choice sportsbook and the totals set to the tune of 203.5 points. The totals market was on a descending scale from game 1 to 3, odds makers adjusting their opening line for each game based on the outcome previously. Following game 3’s whopping 233 points combined, however, the total rockets back up over the 200-point mark. In fact, it opened on 201.5-points but has since crept up by 2.5-points with 62% of consensus bets going towards the OVER. After the blowout of game 3, that NBA trend isn’t surprising.

One has to consider the Mavericks will respond defensively as they did in game 2. Whether that’ll be enough to give them the win, remains to be seen. It’s hard to see how they might derail Oklahoma City Thunder, who are within touching distance of the finish line and will be looking to clinch game 4 to send the series back home on a deciding note. Including the regular season meetings, four of the six games between this pair cracked the 200-point mark and cashed on the OVER. We expect a much closer game by the Mavericks this time around as they look for redemption, but it still feels like a shoot-fest. So we’re taking the OVER 203.5 on our NBA picks.

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Free NBA Pick: OVER 203.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

 

LA Clippers vs. Portland Trailblazers
Series 2-0

The Los Angeles Clippers take a commanding 2-0 lead over the Portland Trailblazers as the pair get set to resume hostilities. Despite the 2-0 edge, the game is nestled on a tight betting line with the visitors favored only just. Most sportsbooks opened with the Clippers as the 2-point road chalk but that spread has dwindled down to 1-to 1.5-points depending on your choice sportsbooks with public betting split almost down the middle between the pair.

As it is, the Clippers have 54.4% of the market, but 45.6% of the market (which is a good chunk) is going against the grain and taking the hosts and the points. Where the total is concerned, the game is trading at 207.5-points, matching the opening line at most sports betting exchanges as public betting is once again split down the middle with 51% taking the OVER and 49% taking the UNDER.

Indeed, given these NBA betting trends there are sure to be many bettors on the fence with the total. The first two games of the series cashed on the UNDER with game 1 coming just UNDER 210.5 (115-95) and game 2 going well UNDER 210 (102-81).

The Clippers took the regular season series 3-1, which includes a 3-1 mark for the UNDER in total betting as well. Repeatedly, the market installs this matchup on relatively high totals, ranging from 205 points or higher. More often than not, it would seem the UNDER prevails, even if only just. The one instance when the OVER cashed between this pair the game went 109-98 to the Clippers and cashed just OVER 205.5. By these trends, the UNDER does seem to be the smart NBA pick seeing as the total still looks too high.

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Free NBA Pick: Under 207.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline