NBA Picks: Tuesday Value Picks

PJ Laferla

Tuesday, January 29, 2013 3:03 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2013 3:03 PM UTC

We are breaking down three of the four matchups on the board this Tuesday evening and providing our NBA picks that will believe will be profitable for bettors. Find out below which selections will beat the NBA odds tonight.

NBA Picks: Wrong Lines Make For Right Bet

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons

NBA odds:  Pistons -1, Over/Under 201 ½

Tip off: 7:35 PM EST

The Bucks score an average of 97.6 points per game, but they are facing the seventh best defense in the NBA tonight, as the Pistons are holding opponents to an average of 92.6 points per contest.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense is good for 95 points per game, but tonight they have a good chance to eclipse that number, as Milwaukee’s defense surrenders just about 98 points each game.

While Milwaukee is “over” in their last four games overall and Detroit is “over” in three of their last five, nothing points to this game being a high scoring affair.

In fact, the Bucks and Pistons usually stay “under” when facing teams in their own division.  Milwaukee has done it 8 of the last 11 versus division foes, while the Pistons fell below the number their last four consecutive games against central division opponents.

The Pick

The total line of 201 ½ points is definitely inflated and one that should be taken advantage of; so our NBA pick for this matchup is to make a play on “under” the posted total of 201 ½ points.

NBA picks: UNDER 201 ½


Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers

NBA odds: Trail Blazers -2, Over/Under 201 ½

Tip off: 10:05 PM EST

Portland (22-22) owns a better straight up record than the Dallas (19-25), but the Mavericks are producing much better results against the spread.

Dallas is 13-10 against the spread this season when playing on the road, including six of their last seven. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 overall and six straight games played on a Tuesday. If that isn’t enough, they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Western Conference opponents.

Meanwhile, Portland is a modest 11-10-2 ATS at the Rose Garden this season. They have covered the point spread in just two of their last five games overall and five of their last ten. The Trail Blazers are winless against the spread in their last five games when facing a team with a losing record.

The Pick

Dallas is six games below .500 and playing on the road tonight against a team this is 15-8 straight up on their home floor this season, yet the NBA odds makers have listed Portland as -2 point favorites. Something is not right in this matchup, so our NBA pick for this one is to go with the Mavericks as +2 point underdogs.

NBA picks: Mavericks +2


New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers

NBA odds: Lakers -7, Over/Under 194 ½

Tip off: 10:35 PM EST

The Hornets are the 3rd worst offensive team in the NBA this season, averaging just 93.2 pints per game. However, their defense is decent and falls in the middle of the pack, as they are holding opponents to 97 points per game, which ranks 14th in the league.

Despite their poor offense, they are ”over” in five of the last seven matchups versus teams from the pacific division. Additionally, they have eclipsed the number 11 of 16 times when facing the Lakers at the Staples Center.

Speaking of the Lakers, they are averaging 102.4 points per night on offense, but surrendering nearly as much on defense, giving up 101 to opponents each time they take the floor.

The irony here is that the Lakers are “under” in 9 of their last 11 games played at home and 8 of 10 overall.

Going back five meetings between these two teams, four of their last five have stayed “under” the posted total.

The Pick

We know the Lakers can score, but they haven’t proven they can stop anyone on defense.  Given both teams’ offensive averages, this over/under total seems to be accurate, but the 'Over' is the right play to add to your evenings sports picks.

NBA picks: OVER 194 ½


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