Mavs vs. Jazz
Dallas is clinging onto the 7th seed out West, and tonight they are -7 ½ road favorites against the Jazz, with a total of 199 ½. Just under a month ago these two teams hooked up from Utah, and the Mavs got exactly a seven-point win and cover. Tonight will Utah’s fate at home be the same, or will they turn things around and possibly play spoiler to the city of Dallas?
Even though I do think the Mavs have pretty good value here ATS, I am instead going with a bet on the total of 199 ½. The last time these two played the total has gone over, as well as in seven of the last ten times they have played one another. However that total a month ago was two points higher than it is now, and I think we can exploit it with an over bet tonight.
The Jazz have been awful ATS in their last 20 games, going 6-14 ATS. They aren’t much better SU in that stretch, and this kind of losing has mainly been caused by their defense. Even though it’s better than some other bottom dwelling teams, the Jazz still give up a lot of points to fast paced teams like the Mavs. Dallas is averaging almost 112 points per game over their last ten games, and Utah will be in no position to stop Dallas from that much tonight, even at home.
The over has cashed in seven of Dallas’ last ten games, while the over has cashed in four of the last five games for the Jazz. At less than 200 points, I’m looking at the over again.
My Pick: OVER 199 ½
Thunder vs. Kings
The Thunder are still trying to fight off the rest of the West to hold onto the #2 seed, and tonight they are in Sacramento as -8 ½ road favorites. However with the uncertainty of Isaiah Thomas once again tonight, I think the spread is off limits. Although he looks like the only major injury note for the game, it is enough to make handicapping the spread a nightmare. The Kings play so much better on offense when Thomas is in, and even though Ray McCallum has been good, his offense and assisting has been lacking.
With the spread is looking like a no go, the total of 202 looks very intriguing. These two teams cash the under against one another a lot, and the Kings have been one of the better under cashing teams of the last six weeks. However at 202 and because of the low Sacramento scores recently, this total is very undervalued.
The over has cashed in four of the last six games for the Thunder, and four of their last five road games as well. Sacramento’s defense has done better than most against the Thunder this season, but they are still giving up about 100 points per game to them. This could also be because in the first two of three matchups this season, Russell Westbrook was not playing yet. Just a few more points above 100 would cash the over here, and even though they are going to try and play spoiler, the Kings won’t have enough defense to keep OKC down.
The Thunder have cashed the over at 20-17 on the road this season, and I see it happening again.
My Pick: OVER 202