Kings vs. Bobcats
While these two promising young teams may put on a close game tonight, I am more focused on the NBA Odds for the total of this game, which sits at 196 points. The Bobcats are -2 home favorites here, but these two teams are made to put up points on one another, and I think we see a higher scoring affair this evening.
As I have said many times, the Bobcats always play better at home, but that is normally all on offense. With Sacramento’s new look offense coming to town, I doubt the Bobcats are going to be able to play defense as well as they have so far this season. Against the western conference this year, the Bobcats are giving up a little more than 98 points per game, and I could easily see the Kings getting that much tonight.
On the flip side, the Kings’ defense is the unit that’s going to get us the cash tonight. Through the first quarter of the season, the Kings are giving up over 104 points per game on the road, and over their last ten games overall, the Kings have given up an average of 105 points per game. Charlotte should have no issues scoring on the Kings tonight, despite some of their scoring woes this season. I expect both Al Jefferson and DeMarcus Cousins to not be able to stop one another tonight, and I also suspect that the matchup between Kemba Walker and Isaiah Thomas will be more offensive in nature.
The over has cashed in five of the Kings’ last six games overall, and while Charlotte is only 3-10-1 cashing the over at home this season, I think the total is a little undervalued because of this trend. Those numbers will even out as the season goes on, and I think it starts tonight against a Kings team that may have one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
My Pick: OVER 196
The NBA Odds have the Thunder as -2 ½ favorites tonight on the road in Denver, and the total sits at 207 ½. Once again, the lower spread does not interest me, so instead I am going with a wager on the total of 207 ½.
With Ty Lawson back from his hamstring scare, the Nuggets should be back to their fast paced offense, and as we’ve seen already this season, the Thunder also like to get out and run. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 of the league in offensive efficiency, and possessions per game. While the Thunder have improved their defense this season, they tend to forget it sometimes when playing on the road.
The Thunder give up nearly four more points per game on the road opposed to playing at home, and against the Nuggets, 100 points is almost assured. Three of the last five times these two teams have played one another, the total has gone over, and with how hot the Thunder are right now, I suspect 207 ½ is too low for these two offenses.
In their last ten games overall, the Thunder are averaging almost 110 points per game, and seeing as no one on the Nuggets is going to slow down the Thunder stars, we'll take the over tonight for our NBA pick.
My Pick: OVER 207 ½