Wizards vs. Mavs
These two teams couldn’t have had more opposite starts to the season, and now things are starting to turn around. The Wizards started the year 0-3 SU, then won two games including at home versus Brooklyn. They lost a stellar performance in Oklahoma City 106-105 on Sunday, and now the Wizards are +5 ½ underdogs heading into Dallas tonight.
Dallas started the year hot from the floor, but they have cooled a lot since then, and they are starting to come back down to earth, losing two of their last three games. Rick Carlisle has done a great job with this group, but they aren’t -5 ½ points better than the Wizards by a long shot. I have them as a -2 ½ favorite in this one, and I am happy to back Washington with my sports picks.
The Wizards are as good or better offensively than the Mavs because they are much more balanced. After Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavs’ scoring consistency drops off tremendously, and if you’re like me, I don’t think Ellis can keep up his 23 points per game pace he has through seven games. The Wizards have five guys who average double figures, and Martell Webster should be there by the end of the season, making the scoring load much more balanced.
Washington is 3-1 ATS on the road this season, and they are once again undervalued away from home tonight. I think the Wizard defense is the better than Dallas’, although they haven’t showed it yet, and as long as both Ellis and Nowitzki don’t kill them, I see them covering, and maybe winning outright. The Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Mavs, and they are once again 3-1 ATS in their last four games in Dallas.
My Pick: Wizards +5 ½ vs. Bookmaker
Pistons vs. Warriors
After playing last night in Portland, the young Detroit Pistons head down the west coast to play the Warriors in the Oracle. The NBA Odds have the Warriors as -9 favorites, however I am more interested in the total, which sits at 201 points tonight. Detroit gave up 109 to the Blazers last night in a 109-103 loss, and I fully expect the Warriors to get as many or more than that tonight.
Maurice Cheeks’ team has not been the defensive presence some thought they would be so far this season, giving up around 102 points per game through six games. After playing last night, things likely won’t improve for this team, despite it still being early in the season.
Golden State also has been solid on defense so far (I mistakenly said they are giving up 102 points per game in the video, but I meant to say they are scoring 102 per game so far) and they are ranked 11th in scoring to start the season. I fully expect them to take advantage of a slightly tired Pistons team, and despite their defense, I think the Pistons can create some mismatches on Golden State tonight, enough to get into the upper 90s. It could be a blow out, but I think that helps our cause even more on a low total tonight.
The Pistons so far are now 2-0 cashing the over on the road this season, and 5-1 at cashing over this season. The over has also hit the last three times these two teams have met. I see a fast paced game, and a final score of around 110-96.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 201 vs. Pinnacle