Warriors vs. Mavs
Golden State has been a mess the final half of the season, and tonight the NBA Odds have them as +4 underdogs, with a total of 204. While the spread is intriguing, and I have a play on it in another article, so for these NBA Picks, I am focusing on the total of 204. I think this number is severely undervalued.
At 204, it looks like a great night for an over bet on this game. Even though the last five meetings in a row between these two teams have gone under, this is the lowest total these two have played with since that first under cash during that streak, which was January 2013. If this game was in Golden State, I might recommend the under, however in Dallas, the Mavs will be able to put up points on the Warriors, especially with all of the injuries piling up for Golden State.
Andrew Bogut will miss tonight’s game and his absence will open up a lot for the Mavs’ offense. The paint will be an open freeway for Dallas tonight, and it could get even better if David Lee misses again. Lee did travel with the team, but according to reports from Rusty Simmons of the SF Chronicle, Lee is not expected to play tonight.
These two potential absences will spell bad news for the Warriors’ defense, and despite Lee’s subpar defense when he is playing, it still hurts because he is one of their bigger bodies, and better scorers. However don’t think these two being out hurts Golden State’s scoring upside too much for the over. Stephen Curry will take care of any scoring deficit left by the two big men.
The Mavs have cashed the over in five of their last six games at home, and on the season it puts them at 22-16 cashing the over, and averaging 107 points per game in the process.
My Pick: OVER 204
Blazers vs. Lakers
The NBA Odds have the Lakers as home underdogs once again at +8 ½, with a total of 221 ½ versus the visiting Blazers. The Blazers just got back LaMarcus Aldridge and it was just in time. However the Lakers could be getting back their star big man tonight as well.
Pau Gasol has missed the last few games after being hospitalized with vertigo, however the big man practiced yesterday with his team, and is listed as probable tonight for LA. This immediately does two things to the Lakers. First it improves their defense slightly, especially going against Aldridge who I think will see as much Gasol guarding him as Gasol can handle. The second thing it does is it gives Mike D’Antoni and the Lakers the ability to slow the game down and work the half court offense through Gasol in the post.
If both of these things happen in exaggerated fashion, the total could be a very good play tonight on the under. At 221 ½, the total is very high for these two teams at this point in the season. A little over a month ago, these two teams met up and the final ended at 107-106. I could see a similar score at the end of this one. The Blazers’ scoring goes down some on the road, and a final score of 111-104, or something close to that is not farfetched at all.
My Pick: UNDER 221 ½