I have never been that bullish on Indiana’s title chances, and even though I still think they are a great team, they have also lost their last four games SU, and even title contenders rarely do that. However tonight they have their best chance in a long time to right the ship. Boston is coming to town, and they are an 11-point underdog to Indiana, with a total of 193 ½.
Both of these teams have been slumping recently, but even more surprising than the Pacers losing four straight is that they have given up an average of 106 points per game in those four games. This is a team that on the season was giving up low 90s to everyone. Three of the four were to West opponents, but even in inter-conference games, the Pacers’ defense was only giving up around 96 per contest.
The over has cashed in six of Indiana’s last nine games, and for Boston, the over has cashed in five of their last seven. These two met up ten days ago and the total went over, and I think it will happen again tonight in the Hoosier state. Indiana scored 102 points (I mistakenly said 105 in the video) in that game, and the total of 191 went over easily. The Pacers have scored over 100 points in two straight games against the Celtics this season, and with defense coming sparingly for both of these teams recently, the over looks like a great value.
My NBA Pick: OVER 193 ½
Kings vs. Pistons
Speaking of defensive lapses, the Pistons and Kings face off against one another tonight from the Motor City, and the NBA Odds have the home team as a -3 favorite, with a total of 211. While I do think the Kings could be a solid play as an underdog, I see a much safer and more valuable bet in a play on the total.
The Pistons are only 4-20 SU against the Western Conference this season, and only 8-16 ATS in inter conference games. But defense hasn’t come easily for the Pistons this year, and since we all assumed they would have a good defense because of their size, they have been undervalued in totals all season. The Pistons have cashed the over more than any other team, and despite this being known for some time, the sportsbooks continue to undervalue their totals, and 211 is just that.
The over has cashed in eight of the Pistons’ last 11, and 12 of their last 16 overall. On top of that, they started the year at 5-6 in total betting at home, but since then the over has cashed in 19 of their last 25 home games. Their defense has given up 112 points per game in their last three (all losses SU) and 110 points per game in their last 10 games.
The Kings should have no issues scoring on Detroit tonight. Andre Drummond will be prone to foul trouble against DeMarcus Cousins, and I doubt the Pistons will be able to slow down Rudy Gay or Isaiah Thomas for that matter. I see both teams scoring well into the 100s tonight, and 211 being a steal for over value tonight.
My NBA Pick: OVER 211
One of the better inter-conference games of the day is the Spurs and Bulls hooking up from Chicago. The NBA Odds have the Bulls as +5 home underdogs tonight, with a total of 190. Chicago has been playing exceptionally well since they traded away Luol Deng, and after upsetting the Heat on Sunday, can the Bulls do the unthinkable, and beat San Antonio too?
Chicago was a horrible bet ATS at home last season, but this year they have been solid at 16-14 ATS. They also have the benefit of beating the Spurs once this season SU and ATS already in San Antonio. Even though the Spurs were really banged up in that game, the Bulls’ defense can outwork the San Antonio defense.
Joakim Noah is a bad matchup for Tim Duncan at this stage of his career, and I fully expect the Bulls to win the rebounding and position battles down low. All it will take then is for the Bulls to make some shots, and I see them covering if they do. Chicago is 3-2 ATS versus the Spurs in their last five meetings, and they are 5-3 ATS in their last eight against San Antonio.
San Antonio has also been giving up some points recently, and if they aren’t playing solid defense against Chicago, the Bulls’ defense will be enough to keep the game close enough to cover this spread. Even though they have won their last four games in a row, the Spurs have given up almost 102 points per game in those four games. If the Bulls have that kind of wiggle room tonight, the Spurs are in trouble. Chicago is already 4-3 ATS as home dogs this season, and they look slightly undervalued tonight. I am taking the points.
My Pick: Bulls +5