Bucks vs. Heat
Game 1 saw the Bucks play valiantly for about three quarters, but the Heat were too much and for too long this past Sunday evening, and now the Heat come into Game 2 as -14 favorites with a total of 197. As tempted as I am to take the points with the Bucks here, I’m seeing a lot more value on the total which is set at a manageable 197.
The Heat don’t need to exert themselves on the defensive end to beat Milwaukee. They are saving themselves for later runs. However I also think the Bucks will be able to score more than 87 points in Game 2, leading me to think the over is where we need to go with our NBA picks.
The under is trending with these two teams and has cashed in the last four games or three of the last four depending on the book. The Heat should hit 110 or more in Game 2 once again, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the Bucks will be able to score tonight as well. The Bucks scored over 100 points twice against Miami in the regular season.
My NBA Pick: OVER 197
Nuggets vs. Warriors
After a thrilling Game 1, these two are back at one another on Tuesday evening. The NBA Odds have the Nuggets favored by -8 with a total of 207 points. Once again, I am really tempted to take points with the Warriors here, but the injury to David Lee will be too much to overcome for the young Warriors.
Instead I’m siding with the total again in this one, and I’m once again going over. The over has cashed in three of the last five times these two have played one another, and even though Saturday was a low scoring game, I think they bounce back and each top 100 points.
Neither one of these teams play an ounce of defense, and with the loss of David Lee, the Nuggets should get even more opportunities to get fast break and easy baskets. Andrew Bogut is unreliable as a post scorer right now and that means there will be even more threes hurled up by Golden State. This is going to lead to long rebounds and fast break points by the Denver.
I have two free picks on offer for this game, as I believe that both the total and the spread hold solid value. Along with siding with the over in this game, I am going to lay the points with the Nuggets for a slight lean bet. David Lee’s absence will not only put the Warriors in a bind on offense but on defense as well. Even though he isn’t a great personal defender, he does take up space and grab a ton of rebounds, which now Golden State will have to get from unproven sources. I think Denver wins this one by ten to twelve points in this one, as well as adding plenty of points to cash the over.
My NBA Pick: Nuggets -8 and OVER 207