NBA Picks: Trust Lakers & 'Over' To Get The Job Done vs. Pelicans

Kevin Stott

Thursday, February 4, 2016 12:55 PM GMT

Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016 12:55 PM GMT

Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers take their 1-game Win Streak to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans to face Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans. Let's review the NBA odds.

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Final Score Prediction: Pelicans 111   Lakers 103
NBA Picks: Lakers +12½ -150  & Over 208.5 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The lifeless Los Angeles Lakers (10-41 SU, 4-23 Away) lock horns with Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans (18-30 SU, 13-11 Home) at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans on Thursday night in the second of three meetings—the two will meet again in The Big Easy on April 8 in Kobe Bryant’s last game in the city—between these Western Conference teams this NBA Regular Season. British oddsmakers have opened up the host Pelicans as significant 10½-point favorites (Bwin) with the game’s Total (Points) set at 208½ (Paddy Power) while the Money Line odds here see Anthony Davis and New Orleans priced as big -800 favorites with the Lakers lined at +500 on the take-back (Sky Bet). The New Orleans Pelicans Team Total Points has been set at 110 (-120, Ladbrokes) with the Los Angeles Lakers Team Total Points opening up at 99½ (-120, Ladbrokes) while the 1st Half NBA odds see the Pelicans as 5½-point favorites (-125, Winner).

 

Los Angeles Lakers
Kobe Bryant scored 38 points to lead the Los Angeles Lakers (22-28-1 ATS, 11-15-1 Away) to a 119-115 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, snapping a 10-game Losing Streak in Los Angeles on Tuesday night as three others in the Lakers Starting 5—SG Louis Williams (30 points), PF Julius Randle (15 points) and PG Jordan Clarkson (16 points)—were in double-digits as the hosts went 40-80 (50%) from the Field in the victory and Rookie (Ohio State) PG D’Angelo Russell was impressive, adding 18 points off the Bench. But victories have been few and far between for Head Coach Byron Scott and this Los Angeles Lakers (96.3 AF-106-4 AA) team this Regular Season and this club is tied with the Philadelphia 76ers as the NBA team with the lowest Point Differential (-10.1 ppg). And starting C Roy Hibbert (2 points vs Timberwolves) has been disappointing and the Lakers Bench has as well, with Brandon Bass, Nick Young, Tarik Black, Robert Sacre and Ryan Kelly only being able to provide so much to a 16th-place Lakers (4-29 vs. Western Conference) team simply playing around a superstar playing out his last season while possibly aiming for the best shot at the #1 Pick in this Summer’s NBA Draft.

 

New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans (20-22-1 ATS, 10-14-0 ATS at Home) and Head Coach Alvin Gentry have also had a disappointing season, sitting in 12th place in the Western Conference heading into play Wednesday, but New Orleans (1000/1 to win NBA title, Sportingbet) has gone 7-4 SU in its L11 in a mini-Let’s-Try-To-Get-Back-To-.500 (and then worry about talking about the Playoffs) surge. But New Orleans has now lost its L2 games, 110-95 here at Home at the Smoothie King Center to the Memphis Grizzlies, and, as you can see, have been a good go-against team in professional basketball so far in the Fall and this Winter. The Pelicans (102.6 AF-105.1 AA) do have some really good players in PF Anthony Davis (22.9 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.37 bpg), PG Tyreke Evans (6.6 apg, 1.3 spg), PF Ryan Anderson (17.4 ppg), SG Eric Gordon (14.9 ppg) and PG Jrue Holiday (14.39 ppg), but this team has had Injury and Consistency problems, needs to improve on Defense and will probably need a better Head Coach than Alvin Gentry to get where this team wants to go in The Future although, to be fair, the Injury thing matters and this is only his first year at the controls after serving as an Associate Head Coach for both the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers the last couple of seasons for Gentry.
On the Injury front for New Orleans (12-19 vs. Western Conference), starting SG and speedster Evans (Knee) was listed as Out for the Pelicans Wednesday 110-97 (SA -13, 206½) setback to the Spurs in San Antonio—so this will be the second night of back-to-back games for the Pelicans—while SG Gordon (Finger) is Out until early March and SF Quincy Pondexter (Knee) has been Out for the Season, so, the onus is on New Orleans (3-1 ATS L4 vs. Lakers) players like C Ömer Asik, PG Norris Cole, SF Alonzo Gee and PG Toney Douglas to do more with key Injuries. And the Pelicans without a healthy PG Evans (Check his status for Thursday) at the Point are just not the same team.

 

Series Trends, Logical Reasoning and Hesitant Picks
When these two teams got together in Los Angeles in the first meeting this season less than a month ago (Jan. 12), the host Lakers won outright as 2-point underdogs, 95-91, (Total 203) as Bryant (16.4 ppg, 3.5 apg) scored only 7 points and Williams (19 points) led the Lakers who trailed (just barely) pretty much throughout (22-19 E1, 41-38 H, 71-67 E3) but used a 28-20 4th Quarter to win the game SU and cover ATS. In this series, Chicago (Perspectives Charter School) product Davis (22.9 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and New Orleans have gone 6-3 ATS the L9 in this series while the Under has gone 6-4 the L10 meetings and hit 3 of the L4. And in those L10 meetings, New Orleans has held the Rebounding edge 8 times over Randle (9.7 rpg) and the Lakers (4-23 SU Away). At TrendMart—where are your Trends are Free or your money (or Bitcoin back)—the Pelicans are 6-4-1 ATS over their L11 while the Lakers are 4-6 ATS over their L10. Los Angeles is 3-9 ATS the L12 against the Southwest Division while the Road team is 26-11 ATS the L37 in this series. The Over is now 10-0 ATS in the L10 Pelicans games after Wednesday’s Over (206½) by a ½ point in the Loss to San Antonio. Every point matters. And the Over is also 20-7 in the L27 Home Pelicans games, the Over is 16-7 ATS the L23 Los Angeles game played on a Thursday and the Over is 9-3-1 ATS the L13 Lakers Road games. New Orleans and the Over are both 6-4 ATS the L10 in this Western Conference series.
The health and availability of Pelicans PG Evans (6.6 apg)—he was listed as Doubtful for this one on Wednesday—will be a big factor here from SU, ATS and entertainment standpoints and if Bryant, Randle, Clarkson and especially Williams can all have solid game as they did in the Lakers last outing, then the visitors should be able to stay within the large number here, but let’s buy up to 12½  for our NBA Pick(Ladbrokes) as the Paranoia is thick and trusting the Lakers is like trusting politicians to do what they say they’re going to do when trying to court your vote. Still, Los Angeles should be able to hand with a potentially apathetic New Orleans bunch, especially if sparkplug Evans is indeed unavailable.

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