NBA Picks: Trail Blazers vs. Heat

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, February 12, 2013 3:48 PM GMT

Portland is trying to hold on in the West, but they have a tough road test tonightMiami. What are we predicting to happen in this matchup, and where can the best NBA betting value be found?

The NBA Odds for this matchup favor the Heat by double figures, at -11 ½, with a total of 199 ½ points. Will the Blazers be able to hang on in this one while they are in the midst of a big road trip, or will the Heat come to play tonight at home, and easily earn the cover against the tired Blazers?

[gameodds]5/218267/43/us[/gameodds]

Road weary 

Portland is in the midst of a grueling six game road trip, and the Heat represent game five of that trip. Portland has lost their last three games both SU and ATS, and in those three games, the Blazers have given up an average of 111 points per game in that stretch.

Tonight against Miami it remains to be seen if the Blazers will show up and actually play, but the point spread tells another story. However, the spread for this one is pretty sharp, so I’ve decided to side with the total for my NBA Picks.

Portland has cashed the over in their last five games in a row, and four of their last five road games have gone over as well. Against the Heat, Portland has cashed the over in five of their last six meetings with Miami, and four of their last five games against the Heat in Miami.

Miami of course has already lost once to the Blazers this season, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they came out fighting. However, this is the 2012-2013 Miami Heat we are talking about, and starting fast hasn’t exactly been their forte this season. Once again, that is another reason why I’m siding with the total.

Diesel 

As some of you may know, the Heat are kind of like diesel engines this season. They take a while to warm up, but then they come out firing on all cylinders. Miami is averaging nearly 103 points per game this season, and I think they will get that and them some tonight against the Blazers. At home, Miami is averaging 107 points per game as well.

I see no other pick than the total tonight for more than one reason. Firstly, the Heat should score about 110 points tonight at least. The Blazers will have little answer for Lebron James (as most teams don’t) and I think Portland will also be able to score some points.

LaMarcus Aldridge should have a stellar game while being guarded by the soft Chris Bosh, and Damian Lillard will probably be getting in the lane all evening against Mario Chalmers. Portland is also giving up one of the worst FG% against stats in the NBA this season, as teams are shooting over 46% on the Blazers. Lebron is on an incredible streak of shooting the ball, and it is going to continue tonight.

The Sharp Pick

For tonight's NBA picks, we are going to ride the Over to the bank. Not only do the Blazers give up points and good field goal percentages, the Heat are the NBA’s number one team in field goal percentage at nearly 50%. I’m seeing a game well into the 200s tonight, making the over the play.

NBA Pick: OVER 199 ½