NBA Picks on Total for Thunder vs. Nuggets

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, December 17, 2013 4:45 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2013 4:45 PM GMT

Only five games line the NBA schedule for tonight, and two of the best teams playing this evening face off against one another in Denver. The NBA Odds have the Thunder as -2 ½ road favorites in this one, with a total of 207 ½. After going 2-0 last night in my NBA picks , let’s see if I can add to it with the value on tonight’s game.

Lighting and Thunder

The Thunder have the best duo in the NBA right now, at their numbers and record proves it. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have led the Thunder to amazing offensive numbers, and a 19-4 record through the first quarter of the season. OKC has won their last six games in a row SU, and going up against the Nuggets should lead to a seventh. 

However the Nuggets won’t be a pushover, especially at home where they average 102 points per game. While Denver hasn’t been great ATS at home so far through the first part of the season, they are only going to get better once Danilo Gallanari and JaVale McGee come back, and they should put up a solid offensive effort against the Thunder tonight. 

That is why I believe a wager on the total is where the value lies. Both of these teams score the ball with incredible efficiency, and the Thunder have been on a roll over their last ten games

[gameodds]5/250440/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick 

In their last ten games overall, the Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging almost 110 points per game, and seeing as no one on the Nuggets is going to slow down the Thunder stars, this game could very easily get out of hand. Westbrook will give Lawson all he can handle, and hopefully Lawson can return the favor. While Wilson Chandler will attempt to stop Durant, attempting will be about as far as he gets. In their first meeting this season, Durant dropped 38 points against the Nuggets in OKC, while Westbrook had 30 points.

Another big factor to the Thunder’s first game against the Nuggets was Serge Ibaka’s work on the offensive glass, and I expect him to contribute once again for OKC. Five of Ibaka’s seven rebounds were offensive in that game, including one huge one in the 4th quarter which led to a Durant go ahead three pointer.

With Ty Lawson back from his hamstring scare, the Nuggets should be back to their fast paced offense, and as we’ve seen already this season, the Thunder also like to get out and run. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 of the league in offensive efficiency, and possessions per game. While the Thunder have improved their defense this season, they tend to forget it sometimes when playing on the road.

The Thunder give up nearly four more points per game on the road opposed to playing at home, and against the Nuggets, 100 points is almost assured. Three of the last five times these two teams have played one another, the total has gone over, and with how hot the Thunder are right now, I suspect that the NBA odds offering of 207 ½ is too low for these two offenses.

My Pick: OVER 207 ½
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