NBA Picks: Top 'Over/Under' Recommendations for Wednesday's Playoff Games

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 10:59 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 12, 2015 10:59 PM UTC

The Eastern Conference top-seeded Hawks and West No. 1 Warriors are big favorites to take 3-2 series leads over their road opponents Wednesday -- check out my ATS picks on the games elsewhere. Here are my total choices for the two, both on TNT.

Washington vs. Atlanta (199.5 points)
Three of the four games in this series have gone 'over. This total is the highest of the series. I touched on the John Wall injury in my ATS preview of this game and he's questionable to return just as he has been in the past three games when he sat out. I'm going to presume he doesn't play. There's another injury to note but there's no doubt he will play through it: Atlanta's DeMarre Carroll said he suffered a hip pointer in Game 4's 106-101 win. The Atlanta media said Carroll was seen after the game with a limp but Carroll says he'll be fine. He had just five points in Game 4 in 32 minutes. That the Hawks scored 106 with five from Carroll and only six from Kyle Korver (on only four shots) is pretty impressive. I don't think that will happen too often, however.

Washington got 34 points from Bradley Beal in the loss and he will have to carry the load again with Paul Pierce (22 points) if Wall does sit. Might Coach Randy Wittman change up his bench routine? Drew Gooden and Otto Porter were just 2-for-10 combined for seven points in Game 4. Why aren't Kris Humphries or Martell Webster playing at all? Meanwhile, Atlanta got 14 points off its bench from Dennis Schroeder alone. Atlanta has a better starting five than Washington does so the Wizards have to get more from their reserves.

Free NBA Pick: 'Over' 199.5 at The Greek. It is 6-1 in the Wizards' past seven after a loss. The 'over' is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Atlanta.

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Memphis vs. Golden State (195.5 points)
If you haven't bet the 'under' yet in this series then you haven't been paying attention as all four games have finished that way. The last two games were listed at 196 points so this total, if it stays put, would be the lowest of the series. Memphis hasn't reached triple digits yet in this series but just isn't really built that way offensively with such a plodding, physical style. In fact, the Grizzlies haven't reached 100 since a 115-109 Game 3 win in Portland, the game in which starting point guard Mike Conley suffered those facial fractures. Conley heroically returned in Game 2 of this series and was great with 22 points on 66.7 percent  shooting. However, all those ailments he has (leg/foot issues as well) might be catching up to Conley as he's a combined 7-for-25 shooting in the past two games. It's also not easy chasing around Steph Curry and/or Klay Thompson all night on defense. Let's not forget, too, that the Warriors had the most efficient defense in the NBA this season.

I am curious to see how Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger makes an adjustment to this game. To start Game 4, a 101-84 Warriors rout, Golden State coach Steve Kerr basically dared Memphis to hit open shots. In fact, Kerr had center Andrew Bogut guarding Tony Allen. Bogut just let Allen shoot and worried more about rebounding or helping defensively on Grizzlies bigs Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. NBA odds makers noticed that Allen made just 2-for-9 overall and 0-for-3 from long range and got only 16 minutes of action. OK, playing Jeff Green there helps offensively but Green isn't anywhere close to the defender that Allen is. So Joerger may have to pick his poison because the Warriors are going to continue to sag in the paint because that's where the Grizzlies operate. Gasol and Randolph combined for a series-low 31 points in Game 4. I'm just not sure what Joerger can do other than perhaps starting Green. Might Vince Carter or Beno Udrih play more to help the perimeter offense? We shall see.  

Free NBA Pick: 'Under' 195.5 with your NBA picks at BetOnline. It is 5-0 in Memphis' past five following a loss of more than 10 points. It is 7-0 in the Warriors' past seven after a double-digit win. 

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