NBA Picks: Top 'Over/Under' Recommendations for Monday

Matthew Jordan

Monday, April 13, 2015 3:59 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 13, 2015 3:59 PM UTC

I recommended three games against the spread on Monday's NBA schedule here at SBR so check that out, and here are three more I like in terms of 'over/under' value with NBA odds.

Mavericks vs. Jazz (189)
You might do a double take at this line because there's no way that Utah should be an 11.5-point favorite in NBA odds against anyone, much less a Western Conference playoff team like Dallas. However, we are at  that point of the season where teams that are locked into their postseason spot have nothing at all to play for and will rest guys up for the start of the playoffs. That's the case here with Dallas, which will not move from the No. 7 seed in the West. Starting Mavericks small forward Chandler Parsons is legitimately injured and won't play. Fellow starters Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler are all being held out due to rest. So the Dallas starting lineup is going to be almost unrecognizable with guys like Charlie Villanueva, J.J Barea and Bernard James perhaps in the first five. I'm a tad surprised that starting point guard Rajon Rondo is going to play -- I doubt it's heavy  minutes. So now you can see why this total is so low. Plus Utah has been the NBA's best defensive team since the All-Star break, lead by potential future NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, a 7-foot-1 Frenchman. To make points even harder to come by, it looks as if Utah will again rest starters Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, its two best offensive players. Neither is listed as a starter on the team's official game release. They both missed Saturday's win over Portland. Point guard Trey Burke has missed the past two with a sore lower back and is questionable.

NBA Free Pick: 'Under.' It has hit in the past seven for Dallas in the second of a back-to-back. It is 5-1 in Utah's past six against teams with a losing record.


Pelicans vs. Timberwolves (198.5)
New Orleans could clinch the final playoff spot in the West with a win and Thunder loss at home to Portland, although the Blazers are likely to rest some key guys in that one, making it more likely that OKC  wins. I did take the Thunder on my ATS preview story. As long as New Orleans wins this game and Wednesday's at home against San Antonio (that will be tough unless the Spurs simply punt on it) then it will win that spot. The Pelicans will face a Minnesota team that barely can field a roster with so many guys injured. Guys who won't play Monday include Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Garnett, Gary Neal, Anthony Bennett, Gorgui Dieng, Robbie Hummel and Shabazz Muhammad. Also, starting shooting guard Kevin Martin missed Monday's shootaround with an illness and is questionable. So essentially this will be a D-League starting five. An important thing to keep in mind when making your NBA picks tonight is that the Pelicans lead the season series 3-0 and won all three easily, with the Wolves not topping 91 points in any.  Their 48-point defeat on Nov. 14 vs. New Orleans was the team's worst ever.

NBA Free Pick: 'Under.' It has hit in five of the Pelicans' past six overall.


Lakers vs. Kings (209)
It's the home finale for the Kings, who then close the season at the Lakers on Wednesday. Plenty of good seats available for both! Sacramento returns home from a three-game road trip having lost them all pretty one-sided. Their two best players, All-Star big man DeMarcus Cousins and small forward Rudy Gay, are now done for the season so offense could be tough to come by even though the Lakers are one of the NBA's worst defensive teams. Los Angeles will be without one of its starters in small forward Wesley Johnson. He rolled his ankle in Sunday's loss to Dallas. The Lakers still shouldn't have problems scoring against one of the only two defenses in the NBA worse than they are -- especially without Cousins in there to clog up the middle. The season series is tied at 1-1 with each winning at home.  

NBA Free Pick: 'Over' at Pinnacle. These teams each allow more than 105.0 points per game. The 'over' is 12-3 in the Kings' past 15 after an ATS loss. It is 7-3 in their past 10 at home. 

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