NBA Picks: Top ATS Plays for Tuesday's Pair of Playoff Games

Jason Lake

Tuesday, May 5, 2015 11:42 AM GMT

The Washington Wizards have beaten the NBA odds in all five of their playoff games, and they'll get another chance Tuesday night when they take on the Atlanta Hawks.

Jason’s record as of May 4: 75-75-5 ATS, 12-17 Totals, plus-0.15 units ML, 6-2 Series (plus-4.0 units)


Thank heavens for the NBA playoffs. Beating the NBA odds doesn't get much easier than it does in the first round, and we were able to cash in with six of our eight NBA picks for the Conference Quarterfinals. Maybe the easiest pick of them all was the Washington Wizards (+160), who swept the cottony-SAWFT Toronto Raptors in four games. But it wasn't too difficult to take the top-seed Atlanta Hawks (–1100) against the Brooklyn Nets, either.

Now that the preliminaries are over, we're here in the second round, and the Wizards are already at it again. They took Game 1 against the Hawks, and we're lining them up for Tuesday's TNT doubleheader. Let's catchphrase this catchphrase.

 

Washington vs. Atlanta (8:00 p.m. ET)
You could see the wheels falling off the Atlanta bandwagon in the first round. The Hawks dropped the cash in each of their first four games – we did warn you about following those No. 1 seeds. Atlanta got it together and won the last two games SU and ATS, but it's obvious things aren't going according to plan. The statheads at FiveThirtyEight even gave Washington a 45-percent chance of winning this series.

We're already one-fourth of the way there. The Wiz took Sunday's opener 104-98 as 5.5-point road dogs, and the NBA odds for Game 2 are even more generous at +6.5. Unfortunately, Bradley Beal (14.0 PER) is listed as questionable after spraining his ankle in Game 1. But as we go to press, Beal is expected to play, as are John Wall (19.9 PER) and his swollen left hand.

This could be where things fall apart for the Wiz. Beal was their top perimeter shooter this year at 40.9 percent, and Washington has struggled when he's not available. However, just about everyone is hitting from outside in the playoffs, including Paul Pierce (17-of-33), Drew Gooden (9-of-17) and Otto Porter (7-of-15). Sustainable? Probably not. We're going to stick with Washington for now, and if Beal and Wall struggle on Tuesday, we're prepared to bail on the Wiz going forward.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Wizards at The Greek

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Looking for more betting options? Check out our NBA picks on the totals for tonight!

Memphis vs. Golden State (10:30 p.m. ET)
Both the first-round series we whiffed on were in the Western Conference, although the only reason we took the New Orleans Pelicans over the Warriors was their +2250 price. Obviously, we expected the best team in the NBA to advance. But Golden State did end up losing the first three games ATS. Easy money.

Going 1-3 ATS against the Pellies doesn't make us worry about Golden State the same way as Atlanta's 2-4 ATS first-round performance against the Nets. If anything, the Warriors are better prepared for the Conference semis after getting tested by a quality opponent. They're also much healthier than the Hawks, and more importantly, they're much healthier than Memphis. The Grizz are missing point guard Mike Conley (18.6 PER), who suffered a broken face in the first round against the Portland Trail Blazers.

It's a shame we didn't get to see both these teams at full strength. Conley could only watch as Memphis (+10.5 away) lost Sunday's opener 101-86; he's officially listed as questionable for Game 2, but in reality, Conley might be done for the playoffs. He experienced headaches while watching Game 1 – and not just because Nick Calathes (12.3 PER) was held scoreless in his place. As much as we like the depth on the Memphis bench, they can't replace what Conley gives them, and what Conley gives them has been undervalued in the marketplace. Keep loading up on Golden State until there's a good reason not to.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Warriors at Pinnacle.

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