NBA Picks Timberwolves vs. Warriors to go Over

Jordan Sharp

Friday, January 24, 2014 6:40 PM GMT

The Warriors have owned the Wolves over the last year or two, and tonight the NBA Odds favor the team from Golden State once again. The Warriors are -4  favorites tonight with a total of 210 ½, and I think I have found some great opening value on this game.

Injury report

Some injuries could have a pretty big affect on this game, as two Warriors are game time decisions tonight. Both David Lee and Andrew Bogut are in danger of missing tonight’s game, and it’s one of the reasons the NBA Odds shrunk almost immediately after opening this morning. If both Lee and Bogut miss the game, it will affect both sides of the ball a lot, but I think their defense might suffer the most if Bogut misses.

The Wolves have the ability to score in the paint, and if Bogut misses this game, it’s going to be hard to stop the Wolves, who are starting to play better on offense after a strange slump. However because of the volatility of tonight’s spread, I am laying off and going with a wager on the total. At 210 ½, I see this number being much more valuable for our NBA picks, especially if Bogut misses the game tonight.

The Wolves also dodged a bullet recently on the injury front, as it was determined that Kevin Martin’s finger is not broken. He participated in practice yesterday, and appears to be good to go for tonight’s game, which can only help our wager on the over.

NBA Picks: Friday NBA Betting Preview

The Sharp Pick

The Warriors have dominated the Wolves over the last 18 months, and while it may have little to do with a wager on the total, it is worth noting because of Golden State’s terrific scoring against Minnesota. The Warriors have averaged nearly 103 points per game in their last five games against the Wolves, and during that same stretch, they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.

I fully expect the Wolves to give up some points tonight on the road, despite the fact that they have averaged giving up less than 100 points per game in their last ten games. The Warriors are almost a lock for 106 points tonight, and if that’s their floor, I am feeling great about a wager on the over tonight that online sportsbooks have at 210 ½.

If the Warriors end up missing one or both of their big men tonight, it will give the Wolves a great advantage down low with Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic. Although it might not kill the GS offense without them, defensively the Warriors stand no chance. They already are going to have to go with a smaller defender on Love, and potentially without Bogut, Pekovic would end up having a massive game.

As a road team this season, the Wolves have cashed the over just slightly more than the under, however in their ten games as road dogs this season, the Wolves have cashed the over in six of them. What’s also nice to know is that the Wolves have had two full days off in between their last game and this one. This season on 2-3 days rest, the Wolves have cashed the over at 5-1.

My Pick: OVER 210 ½

[gameodds]5/253517/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]