Thunder vs. Grizzlies Game 6
This is a crucial game for the history of these young Thunder players, and a loss tonight would probably start the wheels of change churning in Oklahoma City. However tonight in Memphis, the Grizzlies are the underdog at home. The NBA Odds have Memphis as a +2 ½ home dog, with a total of 184.
It is really tempting to take points with Memphis here. They are 3-1-1 ATS in this series and at home they play close to perfect defense. They are outmatching the Thunder in the post, but the loan variable is Kevin Durant. Tony Allen has done an excellent job defending Durant in this series so far, but if the greatness of Durant shines through on the road here, it could lead to some more points scored than the 184 total is suggesting.
The over cashed in Game 5 due to overtime, however the over has now cashed in three of the last four games of this series. The over has also now cashed in four of the last five Memphis home games dating back to the regular season, and at 184, this total is by far the lowest of this series.
Oklahoma City’s defense on Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol isn’t going to magically improve overnight and on the road, and I fully expect the Grizzlies to finish in the mid 90s here. If that happens, I think this total is bound to go over. With one day off in between games this season (including the regular and postseason) the Thunder are 28-22-1 cashing the over.
My Pick: OVER 184
Clippers vs. Warriors Game 6
The Clippers have the Warriors on the brink of elimination, but Golden State has been very good when playing at home against LA this series, and even though they lost one SU, they covered both matchups in Oakland, and have covered four of their last five games against the Clippers in Oakland.
That being said, the NBA Odds for this game are extremely close. The Warriors are slight +1 ½ home underdogs to the Clippers, with a total of 209. Although the total seems like a great chance at another over play, a defensive style game is within the realm of possibility here, and 209 could just be a no play.
However at the beginning of the playoffs, I picked this series to go seven games, and the only way for that to happen is for Golden State to win this game. At +100 or even +105 at a few shops, the Warriors on the moneyline present some pretty nice value tonight.
Including the regular and postseasons, Golden State is 3-0 ATS as a home dog, and after a SU loss, they are 21-11-1 ATS on the season. Heading back to their building down 2-3 is going to be a big motivator for this team, and I expect a huge bounce back performance from Stephen Curry. He only took ten shots in Game 5 and had a career high with eight turnovers. I expect that good number to be doubled, and the bad number to be cut in half for Game 6, and I think it will be enough to force Game 7 in LA.
My Pick: Warriors +100