NBA Picks: Thursday Night Value Picks

Steven Suarez

Thursday, January 31, 2013 3:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 31, 2013 3:04 PM UTC

Only two games are on the schedule for tonight, meaning the odds are sure to be air tight. We've got to be extra prudent with our NBA picks, but we feel there's still value out there to exploit.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder

The Grizzlies, recently involved a trade which saw Rudy Gay head to Toronto, have been set as 8.5-point favorites for tonight's game in Oklahoma City. The total can be found at either 191.5 or 192.

Kevin Durant and company have been waiting quite a while to get back on the court since Sunday's road loss to the L.A. Lakers. By their standards, the Thunder are going through a little rut at 2-3 SU (and ATS) over their last five, though all of those games came away from home.

It'll be good to return to Chesapeake for OKC, where they've gone 19-3 SU and 14-8 ATS. The Thunder have cashed against the spread in four of their last five on their own floor and have gone 6-1-1 ATS in their previous eight when playing on three or more days of rest.

Still, the Grizzlies have won two straight in this series and have covered in three consecutive matchups against the Thunder. Will they do it again tonight?

Find out why one NBA capper is adding a Grizzlies cover to his NBA Picks.

We're a tad hesitant to make a play on the spread here, with a lot of uncertainty surrounding Memphis' rotation due to the trade. Darrell Arthur will immediately get more minutes, which isn't a terrible thing, but there may not be as much fluidity for the Grizzlies. That said, Memphis is still terrific defensively and that's a lot of points to be getting.

Placing our NBA picks on the Thunder after a loss has worked out well for us in the past, as they're 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU defeat – and we believe they'll take advantage of a short-handed Memphis team and cover at home. Durant and Westbrook combined for 51 points, 18 assists and 16 rebounds in the earlier meeting with the Grizzlies, so look for them to set the tone once again, especially if Mike Conley (ankle), one of the better perimeter defenders in the league, is unable to go.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5


Mavericks vs. Warriors

Injuries are killing the Warriors right now, which somewhat explains why they're just 3.5-point favorites over the 19-26 Mavericks. An O/U of 205.5 can be located on the NBA odds boards, with the OVER having cashed in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams.

These odds could very well change once we hear the statuses of Stephen Curry (ankle), Harrison Barnes (calf) and Carl Landry (shoulder). All three are considered questionable to play right now.

Be sure to chek out our NBA Picks: Mavericks vs. Warriors for a play on the game's total.

Though there's uncertainty with who'll play and who won't, we still like the Mavericks to show up tonight and cover as our NBA pick. Dallas is playing some of their best basketball of the season, going 6-3 SU over their last nine. The three losses weren't bad losses either – winning inside Rose Garden is always tricky and home defeats to two of the best teams in the NBA in Oklahoma City and San Antonio are hardly morale-killers either.

The Mavericks have also been on a ridiculous roll against the spread, having gone 9-1 ATS over their last ten games overall. They've cashed in four straight road contests to push their overall ATS road mark to 14-10 on the season.

Golden State will have Andrew Bogut out there, albeit on a minutes limit, while David Lee, Jarrett Jack and Klay Thompson have really stepped up their games with the added responsibility. However, Dallas has a lot of experience and also has Dirk Nowitzki approaching his pre-injury form – he had a season-high 26 points against the Trail Blazers the other night.

As good as Lee, Jack and Thompson have been, depth can come in handy in games like these. The Mavericks will be able to call on the likes of Vince Carter, Elton Brand and Brandan Wright off the bench, while Golden State may have to resort to handing out extended minutes to a bunch of rookies (Festus Ezeli, Kent Bazemore and Draymond Green). We like Dallas to cover here.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks +3.5


comment here