Lakers vs. Heat
The big question mark for this game is Dwyane Wade, who has missed the Heat’s last three games, and it looks as if he is in danger of missing again tonight. As -12 ½ NBA Odds favorites, there is absolutely no reason to risk playing Wade at home in January against a team like the Lakers. If Kobe Bryant was playing, something tells me Wade would be out there, but with Lebron James’ recent comments, I doubt Wade suits up tonight. There is no reason to put more stress on Wade’s already very stressed knees.
Either way Wade’s status goes, I think the total has much more value than the spread here in Miami. At 210 ½, the over seems like the play for this early game. With Wade out, James will likely have a big game, which will help out the other Heat players on the floor. Another thing that might help the Heat is Pau Gasol, who missed practice yesterday, and even though it looks as if he will play, a less than 100% Gasol will likely lead to more paint points for the Heat.
The Lakers have been awful with or without Gasol on defense, and on the road this season, the Lakers are giving up about 108 points per game. It’s gotten worse recently will all the injuries as well. In their last ten games, the Lakers are giving up almost 114 points per game, and going into Miami might lead to about that many given up, and the total going over.
Nuggets vs. Blazers
The Blazers are -7 NBA Odds favorites tonight against the Nuggets, with a total of 221 ½. With the undersized Nuggets coming in tonight, LaMarcus Aldridge should have a feast down low, as will Robin Lopez. I have gone on record that I think it may be time to fade the Blazers, however if they are going to continue to be undervalued in the NBA Odds, we should continue to tail them.
The Blazers have dominated the Nuggets in recent games, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Portland has won and covered their last five games in a row against the Nuggets, as well as four in a row against Denver from Portland. In those five most recent contests against the Nuggets, the Blazers have averaged 110 points per game, and I could easily see that much against the defense-less Nuggets.
In their last ten games, the Nuggets are giving up an average of 108 points per game, and even more recently than that, they are starting to slump. They have lost three of their last four games SU and ATS, and they were to Utah, Cleveland and Phoenix, teams they should be beating if they want to make the playoffs in the West. However on the road tonight and pretty overvalued, I am backing a Blazers cover with my NBA picks as the second leg of my parlay tonight.
My Pick: 2-team parlay: Lakers/Heat OVER 210 ½ & Blazers -7