With only two games on the NBA Odds boards tonight, we have to be extra cautious in selecting value. However I think I have found some on this short card, so let’s see if we can continue my small hot streak, as I offer up two more free NBA picks for tonight's game.
The early game tonight is a battle between the Rockets and Knicks, and with both teams coming off of games and travel on Wednesday, the early NBA Odds have the Rockets as -1 ½ road favorites, with a total of 203 ½. The Knicks came back from an early deficit to beat the Hawks in Atlanta on Wednesday, 95-91, and now they are slight home underdogs against a team that is also on no rest.
One big reason these NBA Odds were late coming out this morning is the injury to James Harden. Harden missed last night’s game in Philadelphia, and the Rockets lost 123-117 to the surprise team in the month of November, the Sixers. While I think Harden’s presence, or lack thereof would affect tonight’s spread a lot, his status should not affect the total too much. The Rockets have plenty of guards who can score the ball, and with Dwight Howard potentially feasting down low against absolutely no New York post defense, this game could be very high scoring.
The two teams are a combined 9-7 cashing the over this season, and for the Knicks, the over has cashed in four of their last five games overall, as well as five of their last seven home games. I see defense falling by the wayside tonight. The Knicks are giving up 101 points per game so far since Tyson Chandler went down, while the Rockets are giving up nearly 106 points per game this season.
Oklahoma City played last night in Los Angeles and lost to the Clippers. Now the NBA Odds have them as +4 ½ underdogs going into Oakland tonight to play the Warriors. While the total of 206 is also inviting for an over bet, I think the spread has a great deal more value.
Since the start of last season, the Thunder are 9-6 ATS on the second night of a back to back, and this early in the season, the Thunder are likely not hindered from playing last night. They got beat yesterday by a good and somewhat undervalued Clippers team, but tonight against the Warriors, I think the Thunder create enough mismatches to get the cover. This could very well be a one-possession game in the final seconds and I think we all know that when playing up to their potential, the Thunder are not 4 ½ point-underdogs to the Warriors, even on the road.
Last season against the Nuggets, Kevin Durant averaged 29 points per game. Why do I bring this up you ask? It is because Andre Iguodala was defensing him, and he is now going to be attempting the same task at Golden State. I fear the same thing to a degree can be said about the matchup of Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is much bigger and more physical than Curry, and even though they both create a mismatch for one another, the advantage is to Westbrook simply because of his size and quickness.
The Thunder are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven matchups overall against the Warriors, and they have also covered three of their last four games at the Coliseum. I am going against the home team here.
My Pick: 2-team parlay: Rockets vs. Knicks OVER 203 ½ & Thunder +4 ½