Clippers vs. Heat
The marquee matchup of the evening should not disappoint, as the Clippers come off a bad loss to the Magic to play the defending champs in Miami. The NBA Odds for this one favor the Heat at -5, with a large total of 211 ½. Both of these teams have a ton of upside on offense, but are the sportsbooks overvaluing the magnitude of this game, and what it will do to the defenses?
Bigger games normally mean more physicality, and even though both of these teams like to get out and run, they both can play defense, and transition defense. The Heat have already been exhibiting some of that this season, and while the Clippers have yet to show the upside of being coached by Doc Rivers, a big game might be just what they need to break out of their defensive slumps.
The Clippers have yet to play a team like Miami this season, and with it being on national television, I see the defense for both of these teams ruling the day. The Clippers’ early scoring success against below average defensive teams is what is inflating these early NBA Odds, so take advantage before the sharps do, take the under as the first leg of our parlay.
Hawks vs. Nuggets
For my next game, I’m focusing on the only game not on national TV, and that’s the Hawks heading into Denver. The NBA Odds have the Nuggets as -3 favorites, but like I said, I am much more focused on placing my NBA picks on the total of 203. The Hawks are scoring and giving up 104 points per game to start the season, and against the Nuggets, I think we can expect similar totals here tonight.
The Nuggets have not been great on defense either so far this season, giving up almost 102 points per game. While their offense has been slow to start the season, a home game against the Hawks is just what the doctor ordered for Denver.
On the flip side, the Hawks have a very undervalued offense this season, and it seems as if bettors are slow to take notice. The frontcourt combination of Al Horford and Paul Millsap should feast tonight against the Nuggets, and the Jeff Teague vs. Ty Lawson point guard battle should be filled with offense.
Seven of the last ten times these two teams have met, the total has gone over. Atlanta has cashed the over in all four of their games so far this season, and on top of being lousy defensively, these two teams are excellent three points shooters. The Hawks make about 9 three pointers per game so far this season, and even though they have been off to a slow start the year, (38% from three) the Nuggets are still right in the middle of the league in threes made per game.
What makes these numbers even more appealing is that Denver is currently the 2nd worst team defending the three, as teams are shooting 44% from down town against them so far this season. Atlanta isn’t much better, as they are ranked 18th defending the three this season. Obviously all of these numbers are small sample sizes, but it gives us an idea on what a game between these two might be like.
This should be a fast paced game, and with all the offensive upside for these two teams, I see the 'over' being our best bet to add to our sports picks tonight.
My Pick: 2-Team parlay: Clippers vs. Heat UNDER 211 ½ & Hawks vs. Nuggets OVER 203.