Heat vs. Bucks
The Heat predictably took a 2-0 series lead, and now the series shifts to Milwaukee for a pivotal Game 3. I don’t think anyone picked the Bucks to stay in this series or let alone win a game, but this is the one they would have to do it. I expect Milwaukee’s best game here tonight.
The NBA Odds favor the Heat at -7 1/2, but I think the total has some more value, which sits at 194 points. Even though the under is trending between these two, I see the Bucks having an easier time scoring the ball at home tonight. Even though the Heat are solid on defense on the road, I see Milwaukee getting more than the 86 and 87 points.
The over cashed in five of the last seven Milwaukee home games and 15 of the last 21 meetings between these two in Milwaukee have gone over. I think Miami will let their guard done enough for the over to cash tonight.
My NBA Picks: OVER 194
Nets vs. Bulls
Game 3 of this series has a lot to look forward to, and this is probably the most pivotal Thursday night game. The NBA Playoff Odds have the Bulls as -3 ½ favorites with a total of 181.
The under cashed in Game 2 after a Game 1 over, and I think the sportsbooks have slightly overrated the Bulls defense right now. As banged up as they are, I think both teams will be in the 90s, making the over the play.
Three of the last five times these two have played this season the total has gone over, and three of those games had totals of 181 or less; all of which went over. Both teams do play really good defense, but if they just play their regular season averages of points allowed at home and on the road, this total is headed north. Add the 'Over' to your NBA picks tonight.
My NBA Picks: OVER 181[gameodds]5/226789/43/us[/gameodds]