NBA Picks: Thunder & Warriors Will Go 'Under' In Clutch Conference Match

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, May 26, 2016 2:49 PM GMT

This series has taken on a whole different vibe with the back-to-back wins by OKC at Chesapeake Arena in Games 3 and 4. Let's study the NBA odds and come up with a profitable pick!

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden St. Warriors (-7-/220-) 9:00 ET TNT TV
At this point in time, OKC appears to be the better team. They are clearly the hungrier team with no playoff title for the superstar combo of Westbrook and Durant. Meanwhile, Golden St., despite their words, appear to be a bit fat, happy and content as they rest on the laurels of their championship banner from last season, a record-setting 73 wins in the regular season and consecutive MVPs (this by a landslide vote) for scoring leader Stephen Curry.  

 

Oklahoma City Thunder
The same is true on a physical level. In making our series underdog play, prior to the Game 4 win by OKC (118-94), I noted three key areas which the Thunder would need to excel, if they were to win that game and this series. They achieved all 3 on the checklist! As the best rebounding team in the NBA this season at +8.4 per game, the Thunder out-boarded Golden St. by 16 in Game 4. They also had a +3 net TO margin and shot 11 more foul shots. All of these successes limit the transition game of Golden St. and the huge momentum runs which fuel their success. Focusing once again on those areas will continue to lead Golden St. to success in this series. 

Golden State Warriors
The defending champion, Golden St. Warriors, are clearly a wounded animal, as they return to their strong home court following back-to-back losses of 24 and 28 points. Greater than .600 home favorites in this price range vs. sub .700 teams are a strong proposition in NBA Playoff action when coming off a loss of 20 or more p points. In addition, NBA Playoff home teams in this price range are a near 70% play when coming off consecutive losses and facing a sub .750 team. Golden St. qualifies under both those situations. But, the fundamentals, as pointed out above, only serve to return this game to neutrality. Rather, we will make tonight’sprimetime selection on the UNDER 220-.

 

Conclusions
After 74 NBA Playoff games, there have been 46 UNDERs and only 28 OVERs. We will follow that line of thinking in siding with the UNDER tonight, as each of these teams has underrated defenses that has resulted in 3 of the 4 games going UNDER the posted total. The linemaker has made little adjustment from his Game 1 total of 223 points. In NBA Playoff series between foes with a greater than .664 won/loss percentage, it is a high percentage play to go UNDER the posted total in Game 5 or more. We will follow that line of thinking, while also noting that NBA Playoff home chalk is now 33-17 ATS (66%) this playoff season with the home team covering the last 8 playoff games. I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the UNDER 220- tonight.

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Free NBA Pick: Under 220 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage