NBA Picks: Mavs vs. Thunder
The Thunder come into this game as very suspicious -4 ½ betting odds favorites on the road, with a total of 209 points. Are the books trying to lay a trap for us tonight with the Thunder only favored by four points? Or will the public come out on top with two out of every three bets going on the Thunder?
Thunder attempting to gain ground
Tony Parker has missed seven games so far for the Spurs with his most recent ankle injury, and most though that would be the opportunity the Thunder need to regain control of the number one seed in the West, and create home court for themselves, likely all the way to the NBA Finals.
This has not been the case. The Thunder have gained ground, and have clinched a playoff spot, but are still 1 ½ games back of the Spurs, as opposed to three games back when Parker went down.
One of the main reasons for this has likely been their play on the road. At home the Thunder are a juggernaut, going 30-4 SU and 23-10-1 ATS. However on the road, OKC is 19-13 SU and 15-15-1 ATS this season. Tonight will not be an easy test. The Mavs have been playing great basketball over the last few weeks, and Dirk Nowitzki looks back to full health. If the Thunder don’t show up tonight, the public might be predictably burned laying the four and a half points with OKC.
After being around six to eight games out of a playoff spot two months ago, the Mavs have fought and clawed their way to just three games back of the Lakers for the final playoff spot. Although they have won five of their last six and 12 of their last 17 games SU, they have a really tough schedule down the stretch of the season. 11 of their 17 remaining games are against playoff teams both East and West.
Tonight however, the Mavs get the Thunder at home, a place where they are 17-13 ATS this season and where they score 104 points per game, I think that we have to lay off the spread and side with the total this evening, as I’m seeing some great value.
Check out our pick on the Knicks vs. the Clippers as well!~
The Sharp Pick
I always recommend betting the same 1-2% of your bankroll per game in the NBA, and we have been marginally successful at it this season, netting almost 24 units of profit on the season betting 2 units per game. However if I did such a thing, a three or four unit bet might be the recipe for this NBA Pick here tonight.
The last time these two played in Dallas this season, the Thunder won the game 117-114, and the total flew over. I think we see a similar game tonight. The Thunder give up a lot more points on the road than they do at home, and Dallas as I mentioned, scores over 104 points per game at home this season. Plus in eight of their last 12 road games against the Mavs, the total has gone over.
I think we see a very fast paced game this evening, as both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in Pace this season, both averaging around 96 possessions per game. 209 is about four points too low in my handicapping, so take the over and watch the money roll in.
My Pick: OVER 208 ½ @ Bovada