We remained perfect after yesterday’s NBA Picks (despite blizzard cancelations in the northeast). At 5-0 in my last five NBA Odds plays, I am on a mini-heater. Let’s see if I can keep it going on Tuesday’s slate.
Raptors vs. Pacers
As I’ve mentioned before over the last few weeks, the Raptors are falling fast in the East. Since the beginning of the month, they have gone only 5-7 SU, but they have wont three of their last four SU. A big reason for their recent small turnaround has to be the return of DeMar DeRozan. After struggling with his offense for a few games after missing several weeks, he got back in the swing the other night with well over 20 points against the Pistons. Now the Raptors are only -3 ½ favorites in NBA odds against the Pacers in Indiana, and I think they are extremely undervalued.
The Pacers are also getting healthier, but the Raptors are the superior team on both ends of the floor with DeRozan back. George Hill has been playing well, but the Pacers have capped his minutes at 20 per game, and it looks as if he will stay there for the near future. If he can’t get above 30 minutes tonight, I see the Raptors covering.
The Pacers are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog, and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with winning percentages are above 60%. Despite their recent ATS struggles, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as favorites between -1 and -5, and I see them winning tonight for our NBA Picks.
NBA Pick: Raptors -3 ½
Grizzlies vs. Mavs
We cashed our play on Memphis yesterday with the under winning easily between the Grizzlies and Magic. Now here on a back to back for the Grizzlies, the NBA odds have them as +5 ½ underdogs against the Mavs, with a total of 201. While I am extremely tempted to take points tonight with Memphis, the back to back does scare me some. The Grizzlies are only 4-4 ATS this season off the back to back, however thanks to Sports Insights, this game was pegged as a valuable one by our news system.
While betting the under during the regular season between winning teams, and with a total between 196.5 and 204, the under has cashed over 56% of the time, and it’s gone 4-1 over the last five games that qualify. Off the back to back, the Grizzlies sure do qualify. They should still be able to slow down the Mavs’ offense enough, even on the road, and while the total of 201 is tempting with a team like the Mavs, who have been really good at cashing the over with totals in the low 200s, I see defense ruling here.
The under is 4-1 for the Mavs in their last five games, it’s also 4-0 in their last four games as home favorites and the under is 5-0 for the Mavs in their last five against teams with 60% or better win percentages. Memphis has also cashed the under in four games in a row.
NBA Pick: UNDER 201 at BetOnline