It’s the last night of NBA action before the All Star Break, and there are tons of good NBA Odds on the boards. I have identified three plays today that hold some nice value.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder
Once again we didn’t lose last night as we pushed one play and cashed the other. Now we get another chance to try out our system from Sports Insights, which tells us to bet under on games just like the one between the Grizzlies and Thunder. Since 2006, winning teams that play one another in the regular season that have a total between 196.5 and 204, the under has a nice rate of return of 9.3%.
Tonight the NBA odds favor the Thunder at -6, which is a little much if you ask me, but the total of 197 ½ is where I am focusing my attention on. With both teams rested, and this game being their last in more than a week, I bet both clubs will be up for the game defensively. The under is 15-7 for the Thunder in their last 22 games as home favorites, and the under is 19-9 at home for the Thunder overall. The Grizzlies are 10-1-1 cashing the under in their last 12 games overall, and the under is 3-1-1 for them in their last five games as road underdogs.
My Pick: UNDER 197 ½ at Pinnacle
Jazz vs. Mavs
Another Western Conference battle that should be a pretty good game tonight is the Jazz heading into Texas to play the Mavs. The NBA Odds have the Mavs as -4 favorites, but once again I am looking at the total, which sits at 196 ½. While the Jazz have been pretty good on defense this season despite the loss of Alec Burks, this total is too low for these two teams. The Mavs are still one of the better scoring teams in the NBA, and without Rajon Rondo they have arguably been a little better.
Now they don’t have Tyson Chandler either, who sprained his ankle in Monday’s game against the Clippers. This is going to weigh heavy on their defense, and it should lead to the over being a play tonight. The over is already 9-4-1 in the Mavs last 14 games, and it’s 4-1 for the Jazz in their last five road games, and 4-1 in their last five against teams with winning percentages of 60% or higher.
My Pick: OVER 196 ½ at 5Dimes
Lakers vs. Blazers
For my final NBA pick for the evening, I’m going with a play on the Blazers and Lakers total, which the NBA odds have sitting at 195 even. The Blazers are huge favorites in this one at -13 ½, but against the Lakers who are coming off a back-to-back last night in LA, Portland shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring tonight. Apparently the sportsbooks are worried about the Lakers’ offense being stagnant on the heels of a game just last night. It’s warranted, as the Lakers have not won a game SU on the heels of a back to back.
However while their scoring has been a little lower with no rest (92 points per game in their last four games on no rest) they are still giving up tons of points on no rest. In their eight games this season playing on no rest, the Lakers have given up an average of 109 points per game. If the Blazers can get to 110 in this one, the over is going to cash.
My Pick: OVER 195