NBA Picks of the Day: Warriors-Rockets Hottest Plays for Game 3

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, May 23, 2015 3:10 PM GMT

I am back again to try and go up even further this postseason. The NBA Odds for the Rockets and Warriors are much different now than they were in Houston, but is there value?

Spread Pick
After a heartbreaking loss to the Warriors in Game 2, the Rockets now head back home for a must-win Game 3. Home court should feel good for the Rockets after those last two games, and even though they are still home dogs in Game 3, the sportsbooks recognize that they have undervalued the Rockets in the NBA odds in both of the first two games of this series. Now the Rockets are +1 ½ underdogs at home in Game 3, and the value looks like Houston.

While being home dogs is tempting from a betting standpoint, the Warriors won and covered easily in both of their regular season games against the Rockets in Houston this year. However, Houston figured some things out in Game 2, and with their back against the wall in Game 3, I see the home crowd coming through for them.

Dwight Howard played well even while hurt in the last game, and if he can give them more rebounding and defense like he did in Game 2, the Rockets should be able to win and/or cover here. Houston is 23-9 ATS dating back to the regular season at home, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog dating back to last playoff series. Houston has also cashed their last five games in a row ATS dating back to Game 5 of the Clippers series, while the Warriors are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win. Take the point with Houston tonight, and add it to your NBA picks.

 

Total Pick
The total for this one is a little trickier, but after the under cashed in two straight games, the sportsbooks have lower their NBA odds for the total to 214 ½ in Houston tonight. The Rockets have cashed the over at 9-5 so far during the playoffs, however if you look at just their home playoff games, the Rockets are only 3-3 cashing the over. This season Rockets opponents coming into Houston have had it a lot tougher than facing Houston on the road. In home games this season the Rockets gave up five points less per game than they did on the road, and their opponents shot a couple percentage points lower as well.

Heading into another do or die game for Houston, they should know that defense is the only thing that can give them a chance to win tonight. They played really good defense on the Warriors at the beginning of Game 1 of this series, and if they can find that defense again and bring it home with them from California, the Rockets should be in good shape to help cash the under here.

While the over has trended well for the Rockets recently, the under is 8-1 in the Warriors last nine playoff games, and the under is 8-3 in their last 11 games dating back to the regular season. The under is also 8-1 in the Warriors last nine games as favorites.

My Pick: Rockets +1 ½ & UNDER 214 ½ at Pinnacle