NBA Picks of the Day: Two Plays to Go 'Over' & Cash In Tonight

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, April 11, 2015 2:37 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 11, 2015 2:37 PM UTC

It's a short day of NBA Picks for Saturday, and with only 6 games tonight there is not a lot of value. However I do think I have found a few games that look worthy of betting.

Raptors vs. Heat
The Heat basically blew their playoff chances on Thursday evening after blowing a 19-point lead against the Bulls in Miami, however they have a chance to keep hope alive tonight at home against the Raptors. After having that game in hand in the first half, the Heat are likely still a little mad about blowing that game two nights ago. However they have to win this game tonight or else they are going to be dead in the water for the East playoffs. Right now the NBA odds have the Raptors as a +3 ½ road underdog, however I am a bit more focused on the total for this one, which is sitting at 196 points.

Neither one of these teams are the best example of defense, and I think that’s going to show in the late season contest. Toronto had a tough game last night in Orlando, which they only won by two points, however they once again had trouble with a losing team, which is a narrative following around the Raptors this season. They have been great at cashing the over against losing teams though. Even after last night where the under cashed by only two points, the over is still 8-2 in the Raptors last ten games against losing teams. On top of that, the over is 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 road games, and the over is 4-0 in their last four games as road underdogs. Take the over tonight with your NBA picks.

My NBA Pick: OVER 196 at The Greek

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Jazz vs. Blazers
Portland needs a win tonight to keep pace with the rest of the west, and to try and keep their current home series to start the playoffs. While they have already won their division and can’t slip further than 4th, I’m sure they would still like to move up in the standings to avoid some of the tougher teams in the middle of the standings. A win tonight against a Jazz team coming off a back to back would really help, and the NBA odds seem to think that’s a possibility. Right now the Blazers are a -6 favorite this evening, but once again I am more focused on the total tonight, with sits at only 184 ½.

The Jazz have turned into one of the better defensive teams in the entire league over the second half, however their recent trends suggest that the over could still be the play here. With their improved defense has come some overvaluing from the sportsbooks, and that seems to be exactly what is happening tonight.

With the Jazz off the back to back, their defense might not be as good this evening on the road. Plus they have cashed the over in eight of their last 11 games, and the over is 4-1 in their last five road games. The over is also 4-0 in their last four games against teams with winning percentages of 60% or better, and it’s 5-2 in Utah’s last seven games as an underdog.

My NBA Pick: OVER 184 ½ at Bovada

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