We were two points away on Monday from another perfect night of NBA Picks, but even though we only broke even, I’m back here on Tuesday to help you cash a pair of Picks from today’s NBA Odds.
Heat vs. Bucks
Both of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning out East, and both should be able to hang onto a spot before the regular season expires. However tonight they play one another, and the winner will move into sole possession of 6th place in the Eastern Conference. Considering how bog of a game this is, I expect the best effort from both sides. The sportsbooks recognize this as well. The NBA Odds have the Heat as -1 road favorites in this one, with a total of 194 points.
The key to this game will be who defends better. The loss of Chris Bosh for the season hurts the Heat just because he is their only low post threat offensively. Hassan Whiteside is not yet a force on the offensive end, and while he does a great job of grabbing offensive boards and extra possession for his team, he isn’t going to kill the Bucks down low tonight like many other bigs have done this season.
In fact I think the Bucks may hold the advantage here. In their three meetings this season, the Bucks have won every single game, and won it easily. Bosh and young rookie, Jabari Parker both played in one of the games, but the Bucks have won each game by an average margin of victory of 13 points.
Miami is only 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and they are the same in the last five weeks on Tuesdays. While the Bucks haven’t been great ATS recently, someone has to cover this game, and I think it’s going to be the younger, more athletic team. Take the point with Milwaukee.
NBA Pick: Bucks +1 from 5Dimes
Sixers vs. Kings
One of the late games this evening is the Sixers heading west to play the Kings. The NBA odds have the Kings as -8 favorites, and while I am really tempted to take the points here, I think a better play is on the total, which sits at 206. Neither of these teams will play a hint of defense tonight against one another, and it shows in their matchup against one another, and their recent games. In their first meeting this season just a week or two ago, the Sixers won the game at home 114-107.
The Kings have played better on defense in their last two games, but they were against good defensive east teams. However if you take away their two most recent games against the Wizards and Hornets, the Kings have given up 112 points per game in the month of March. Even if you include those two games, they are giving up over 108 points per game this month. The Sixers’ defense has been very up and down, however they are still giving up 99 points per game this month as well.
The over has cashed for the Kings in eight of their last ten games, and in six of their last eight games as home favorites. The Sixers on the other hand are 6-2 cashing the over in their last eight road games, so place your NBA picks 'over' tonight.
NBA Pick: OVER 206