NBA Picks of the Day: Trio Of Winners To Start The Weekend

Jordan Sharp

Friday, January 29, 2016 2:49 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 29, 2016 2:49 PM UTC

We once again rode our hot streak through Thursday, and now heading into the large slate of NBA Odds here on Friday night, I have cashed my last four NBA Picks in a row, and I have 3 more.

Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Cleveland has done a very good job of playing just bad enough at times to where you still question whether they can get out of the East and into the NBA Finals. There are even more questions about whether they can actually beat a team like Golden State or San Antonio, and right now I think the answer is a resounding, “maybe.”

The Cavs come into tonight’s game against the Pistons as solid -4 ½ road favorites, but the total of 207 points is by far the better wager in my opinion here tonight. We talk about the Cavs’ defense all the time, and it’s truly one of the best units in basketball right now. However, what goes less talked about this season is the Pistons’ defense, especially their defense when playing at the Palace at Auburn Hills.

Detroit is allowing only 100 points per game this season, but that improves to 97.9 points allowed when playing at home, and while their offense tends to be much better at home as well, with the Cavs coming in that may not be the case tonight. The Cavs are ranked 5th in Defensive Rating right now at 102.4, and as I mentioned, more subtly the Pistons rank 10th in the league in DRtg at 103.3. With a total of 207, the sportsbooks are not taking these two defenses into account enough, and while both teams have their holes on defense, tonight the total is high enough to where I really like the under.

The Cavs play better defense on the road than they do at home, giving up only 94 points per game on the road, and they have also cashed the under in 15 of their last 23 games overall. The under is also 4-1 for the Cavs in their last five road games, and the under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two divisional rivals in Detroit, even though the over hit all the way back in November in their first meeting.

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NBA Pick: UNDER 207
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Nets vs. Mavericks
The Nets are once again faced with a large spread here on the road in Dallas tonight, and depending on who is in and out for the Mavs, it could be a nice spot for the over. The NBA Odds have the Mavs as large -9 favorites, but once again the total of 199 is catching my eye. Although it has shortened from 202 to 199, the Mavs might not have Zaza Pachulia once again tonight, which could really affect their defense. Even though Dirk Nowitzki sat out the last game, he should be back tonight for the Mavs, and as long as he plays, the total looks like a nice over play.

While Brooklyn has struggled to score this season, they give up over 103 points per game, and it’s been even worse in their last ten games, as they’ve given up an average of 106 points per. On top of that, even though neither team is great at cashing the over in their respective home/road splits tonight, they both have been trending in the right direction recently for this play.

The over is now 4-2 in the Mavs’ last six games overall heading into this one, and they have cashed the over in four of their last five home games as well. Despite their scoring struggles, the Nets’ defense recently has led to the over cashing in four of their last five games as well.

Dallas’ defense is not great, and if Pachulia misses tonight it’s going to be pretty average, if not below average. These two teams already met once this season in Brooklyn, and they easily cashed the over right before the New Year. I see them doing it again tonight.

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NBA Pick: OVER 199
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Hornets vs. Blazers
For some reason, and it may be because of injuries, the Hornets have been perpetually undervalued this season, and with Nic Batum back and the potential for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist making his season debut tonight, for some reason they are undervalued again as +6 ½ underdogs to the Blazers, with a total of 206. If the sportsbooks like giving away free money, that’s up to them, but after cashing our most recent pick on the Hornets against the Kings two nights ago, I am more than willing to do the same tonight and beat the books by taking the points.

With the potential of Kidd-Gilchrist making his return tonight, even though the Hornets will be down Jeremy Lin, and possibly Jeremy Lamb as well, Portland is a two-man team. If you can slow down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, you can beat them. While Kemba Walker may not be able to slow down Lillard, he is good enough and having a great season to match his output. He could cancel out what Lillard gives tonight, but be warned, both guys were snubbed from the All Star teams, so they both might snap tonight.

However, I think Batum will limit McCollum enough, and I think the Blazers are weak enough up front outside of Mason Plumlee to do some damage tonight and stay in this game within six points. Charlotte has done well on the road this season, cashing at 12-9-1 ATS, and while they haven’t been great ATS versus the West overall, they beat the Blazers in their first meeting this season back in Charlotte, and they are good enough on defense and coached well enough to be our NBA pick tonight ATS.

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NBA Pick: Hornets +6½
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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