NBA Picks Of The Day: Top Value Duo Worthy Of Your Bet

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 28, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

We nailed our two NBA Picks on Sunday to round out a solid week of NBA Picks, and now we are faced with a huge Monday slate of games. Let’s keep our momentum going tonight with two more of my NBA best bets. 

Mavericks vs. Nuggets
It’s do or die time for the Dallas Mavericks if they want to make one last run at the playoffs, and tonight they get a chance to close the gap with a game against the Nuggets. Right now the NBA Odds are pretty even, with the Mavs coming in as a +1 ½ road dog, with a total of 213 points. While I am tempted to take the points with the Mavs, the Nuggets are a different animal when playing at the Pepsi Center. However, the total of 213 is seemingly too low, and the sharps look like they agree with me.

The total has shot up from 212 to 213 where it opened, and it would not surprise me to see it go up even more throughout the morning and afternoon leading up to the game. The Nuggets play a lot faster at home than they do on the road, which gives them a nice advantage against teams that are not used to playing in the altitude. This season the Nuggets have been one of the best over cashing teams at home in the entire league at 22-12, and coming into this one the Nuggets are 6-2 cashing the over in their last eight overall games.

The Mavs on the other hand have been cashing the over with regularity as well, and for them it has been a general collapse in their defense. In the Mavs’ last four games they have given up nearly 122 points per game, and in three of those four games they gave up at least 120 points. These were against some really good Western Conference teams, but the Nuggets playing at home are also very good. They are scoring almost 105 points per game at home this season, and recently they have been giving up points at home as well. Look for a fast-paced game on both sides, and the over to be the NBA pick for tonight.

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Free NBA Pick:  Dallas Over 213 -106
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

 

Celtics vs. Clippers
The final game on the slate tonight is the Celtics and Clippers playing from Staples Center tonight. While Blake Griffin has been cleared to play, he is still in the midst of his suspension for punching a guy repeatedly in the face, and without him once again tonight, the Clippers are a -3 ½ favorite, with a total of 208½. Unlike the game above, this total has been shrinking since it opened at 210 points, and once again I am following the line movement and taking the under between these two underrated defensive teams.

While both of these teams rank inside the top ten in Offensive Efficiency this season, they are also both inside the top ten in Defensive Efficiency as well. While the Celtics tend to play faster, going up against the Clippers in Staples Center is going to be tough for Boston to get out and run. The Clippers play very slowly at home this season, and they have been on fire defensively lately when playing in LA.

In their last 10 home games, the Clippers are giving up only 97.4 points per game. If you take away losses against the Warriors and Cavaliers, the Clippers are giving up only 93 points per game in eight of their last 10 home games.

Considering the Clippers are cashing the under at 23-11 this season when playing at home, I think the under could be a valuable wager. With Jae Crowder still out, the Celtics are still down one of their better offensive players. This has hurt their offense, because in their last three games against one of the top 10 defensive teams in the league, the Celtics are averaging only 93 points per game.

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Free NBA Pick:  Cletics Under 208½-105
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage