NBA Picks Of The Day: Top Value Duo For A Rewarding Thursday

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, January 28, 2016 2:30 PM GMT

Tonight there is a nice slate of NBA Odds with six to choose from. Hence, here are my two best NBA picks from the games we currently have available. 

Hawks vs. Pacers
The Hawks played last night and had a tough loss to the Clippers, and now they head into Indiana to play the Pacers, a team that also recently lost to the Clippers. The NBA odds have the Pacers as -3 home favorites, with a total that has dropped nearly five full points down to 201½. While the total has probably had the value bet out of it, the spread has gone up from -2 to -3, and I still think there is value with the Pacers tonight, and I am following the line movement.

Indiana and Atlanta have been pretty inconsistent this season, but one constant from Indiana this season has been their good home play. The Pacers are 11-9 ATS at home, and they are even better when playing conference teams at home, going 9-3 ATS against the East at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. I think that holds true again tonight.

The Hawks coming in on no rest have been rather inconsistent this season. The Hawks are only 5-6 ATS when playing on no rest this season, and while they have been very solid ATS when going from a road game to a home game on consecutive nights, however, when going from a home game to an away game on no rest, or in two consecutive road games, the Hawks are only 1-4 ATS.

I think we need to follow that trend tonight and lay the points with the Pacers. Indiana has been up and down recently, especially on defense, but home cooking tends to help them, especially against a tired Hawks team. Indiana has played nine of their last 12 games on the road, which can hurt a team’s record a lot, but while they have struggled to stop people on the road, they have given up only 97 points per game in their last four home games, and they only allowed a powerful Clippers team to get to 91 points. Look for the Pacers to take care of business tonight ATS, especially with Paul George back to playing like an MVP candidate, and no one on the Hawks qualified enough to slow him down tonight.

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Free NBA Pick: Pacers -3
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Bucks vs. Grizzlies
Speaking of inconsistent teams, the Bucks have been a major disappointment this season after looking like one of the up and coming teams last season, and after signing Greg Monroe to a big deal. Now they head into Memphis to play the Grizzlies, another team that has been inconsistent at times, but playing at home tends to help their consistency quite a bit. The NBA Odds have Memphis as a solid -5 favorite, and while I want to lay the points tonight, my better judgment is telling me the total of 195½ is a better play.

The Bucks tend to play well against teams they match up well against, or teams they create matchup issues for, and the Grizzlies qualify as one of those teams. Memphis tends to play very good defense at home, giving up an average of only 99 points per game, and that gets even better when they play against a team from the East. Memphis is giving up only 98 points per game at home to Eastern Conference teams, and if you take out some of their hiccups earlier in the season, in their last seven home games against the East at home, that average drops to 95 points per game allowed.

The Bucks are one of the worst road scoring teams in the NBA, and while I expect that to continue, I also think they matchup well enough to the Grizzlies to play some solid defense tonight. Jason Kidd is also back on the bench for the Bucks, which should help also. The under has cashed in four of the last six road games for the Bucks, and while they have not played yet this season, the under is 4-1 in their last five meetings, and it cashed in both their meetings last season. We are taking the under for our NBA picks.

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Free NBA Pick: Under 195½ 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage