NBA Picks of the Day: Top-Profit ATS & Total Bets on Offer Tonight

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, May 14, 2015 12:24 PM GMT

After losing both of our plays again, our pattern this week tells me that we are in for two cashes tonight. Here are my Thursday NBA Picks of the day and so far my playoff record is 29-18-2.

Cavs vs. Bulls
Lebron James had another playoff game of a lifetime, and if you’re a Chicago Bulls fan, you can bitch about the refs or the lack of offense from the Bulls, but once again a Lebron Game beat the Bulls. If they can stave that off for the next two games, they have a chance to win this series. However, if the Bulls let James run crazy again and carry the Cavs on one ankle, then they deserve to lose this series.

However, in this elimination game the NBA odds favor the Bulls at -2, with a total of 192. The one big factor that changes this line to favor the Bulls after two straight losses is Pau Gasol, who seems to be ready to make his return to the lineup tonight after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. This should add a lot to a struggling Bulls offense, even if the big man isn’t quite back to 100%, and even if he can’t play his full allotment of minutes. During the regular season the Bulls Offensive Rating (ORtg) basically didn’t move with Gasol on and off the court, however during the playoffs, the Bulls have an ORtg of 107 with Gasol on the court, and 104.7 when he is resting.

If he can give Chicago anything tonight, they will win this one at home to force a Game 7. If he can give them a Gasol-level of performance, the Bulls might just win this game easily and put pressure on the banged-up Cavs to close Game 7. Plus after their cover of Game 5, Chicago is 5-1 ATS in their last six Conference Semifinal games, and they are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home games dating back to the regular season.

My Pick: Bulls -2 at The Greek

 

Rockets vs. Clippers
Houston made a big win happen in Game 5 to avoid being embarrassed in their second round series, but they have a tougher task tonight to try and beat the Clippers for a second game in a row, and to force a Game 7. The NBA Odds have the Clippers as huge -8 ½ favorites in this game, but while this spread is pretty close to where I would have put it, the total is still less than 220 points at 219 ½. We have cashed the over with every bet we placed on this game, and it’s paid off. However after all five games have gone over the total, and with this total at the same price as Game 5, I’m betting the over once again.

The over has now cashed for six games in a row for the Clippers dating back to their Game 7 against the Spurs, and the Rockets have cashed the over in 13 of their last 16 games dating back to the regular season. Plus, the over is 4-0 for the Rockets in their last four-playoff games as underdogs. Look for the trend to continue and add the Over to your Thursday's NBA picks, but unfortunately for the Rockets this might be it for their playoff run.

My Pick: OVER 219 ½ at 5Dimes