NBA Picks Of The Day: Teasing Totals & Spreads Are A Perfect Couple

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 2:16 PM GMT

The short slate killed us yesterday, but it was our first bad day in some time. Now with a full slate of playoffs action left, let’s see if we can find with two more premium NBA Picks. 

Blazers vs. Clippers
Portland has the Clippers right where they want them. After it looked as if the Clippers were going to blaze through the Blazers in short order, they Moda Center, and injuries to both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin proved to completely change the series. Now the two teams are tied heading into LA for Game 5, and it looks as if they Clippers will be without Griffin and Paul for the remainder of the playoffs.

The sportsbooks have take notice. The NBA odds have the Blazers as -3 favorites on the road in this one, with a total sitting at 195 ½ and plummeting fast. There is no doubt that the Clippers are in trouble here, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win this game.

While I doubt they will, I’m also a little worried about fading them altogether in the NBA odds boards. A small one-unit play on the Blazers ATS is probably warranted here just because the Clippers are likely distraught, but the total is actually looking like a better play, and it’s getting more valuable by the minute.

Since it opened, the NBA pick on the total has dropped from 199 to 195 ½, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it drop some more before settling. However, this one is going in the exact wrong direction. The Clippers’ defense has been superb in these playoffs, but without Griffin and Paul on the court this season, the Clippers’ Defensive Rating was 106, which means they give up 106 points per 100 possessions.

Without their two main half court options, the Clippers are going to have no choice but to play faster for the rest of the series. Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford are going to be tasked with pushing the pace as much as possible, and the Blazers will be happy to oblige. Portland’s offense is bound to improve now that Damian Lillard isn’t being hassled by Paul all game, and every thing will lead to more offense.

Just because Paul and Griffin are out doesn’t mean the Clippers’ offense is going to collapse. These are still NBA players, and almost every player in the NBA has the ability to score.

I expect a faster game with less half-court offense from LA, and definitely less defense and struggles to score from Portland. You might even be able to wait and get the total even lower with the way it’s dropping.

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Free NBA Pick: 'Over' 195 ½ -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Rockets vs. Warriors
Speaking of injured superstars, the Warriors will likely be without Stephen Curry for a few weeks at least, and that has probably got them thinking about the next round already. However, while that might be a death sentence for some teams, the Warriors probably want to wrap this one up.

Being without Curry would hurt more if it weren’t for the Rockets dysfunction. Plus, the Clippers are even more banged up that Golden State, so getting this win tonight so they can rest up and make quick work of the Clippers is probably top on the priority list.

That being said, a teaser is probably the best way to attack this one. We saw the Warriors have no problem scoring on Houston’s awful defense in Game 4 even without Curry for most of the game, and now back at home, teasing them down to -5, and taking the over at 207 ½ seems like a great wager at this point.

Houston is going to pull out all the stops, but that probably only means they’ll actually get over 100 points this time. A -5 spread is safe enough for the Warriors at home, who should feel even more desperate than a Rockets team that is probably already booking vacation flights for tomorrow after they get beat down on Wednesday.

Free NBA Pick: Teaser – Warriors -5 & 'Over' 207 ½