We split another pair of NBA Picks last night, but even though there are a bunch of NCAA Tournament Odds today, there are also some nice early NBA Odds too, especially with these two plays on the total.
Heat vs. Thunder
The news that Kevin Durant is without a timetable might just kill the Thunder’s chances of making, or doing anything in the playoffs. We are less than a month from the start of the NBA playoffs believe it or not, and with Serge Ibaka out for the rest of the regular season, and Durant without a timetable; things are getting troublesome for Oklahoma City. Today they have an early-afternoon showdown with the Miami Heat, and the NBA Odds have the Thunder as a -3 ½ favorite. However I am more focused on the total for this one, which sits at 212 ½ points.
These early-afternoon games are normally pretty low scoring. Since the All Star Break, Sunday matinees have gone under the total at 5-3-1, and this is the exact type of scenario that could cash the under for us again. While the Thunder have been cashing the over left and right over the last few weeks, the Heat are the type of team that can slow down the Thunder’s offense, and make the under the play here on Sunday afternoon.
The Heat have cashed the under in 20 of their last 29 road games, and in 10 of their last 11 games on Sunday. The under is also 11-3 for the Heat in their last 14 road games against winning home teams, and the under is 15-5 in their last 20 games as an underdog. This NBA odds total is simply too high, even with the over cashing streak (10-1-1 in their last 12 games) the Thunder are on.
NBA Pick: UNDER 212 ½
Nuggets vs. Magic
This one we need to jump on before the value melts away, but throughout the day, the total for this one has been steadily increasing, and even from the time I started writing this article to the time I finished it, the total had gone up another point. The NBA Odds for this one have the Nuggets as -1 road favorite, however the total of 207 has risen five full points since it opened, and I am still wanting to be the over.
The over is 7-3 in the Magic’s last ten games, and it’s mainly been because their defense is starting to collapse late in the season. They have also been good at home, cashing the over in all five of their previous five home games, and in their last five in a row as a home underdog. The Nuggets on the other hand have cashed the over in five of their last seven against losing teams, and in four of their last five games on Sunday.
This one should be a faster pace game, even though the Magic rank only 26th in the league in pace of play, the Nuggets should control this one enough where they force Orlando to play a bit quicker. Even though both teams have lower pace rankings, they both have also gone through coaching changes this season, which skews their season-long stats some. Take the over and add it to your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: OVER 207 at Pinnacle Sports