NBA Picks of the Day: Shifting Odds Put Playoffs Value in Your Hands

Jordan Sharp

Monday, April 18, 2016 2:00 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 18, 2016 2:00 PM GMT

We split a pair of NBA Picks on Sunday after the Hornets decided not to show up, but let’s keep that momentum going here on Monday night with a few more of best bets!

Playoff Record: 3-1

Mavericks vs. Thunder
The Western Conference is the conference of haves and have not’s right now. All four of the first round games in the West were won by at least 20 points, and outside of maybe the Grizzlies, the Mavericks are the team that is hurting the most. Dallas is expected to be without JJ Barea, Deron Williams and David Lee in this game, and the NBA odds makers have the Thunder as -13 favorites, with a total of 200 points.

Dallas stands very little chance of winning this game, and their only hope is to get healthy enough to try and put up a fight on their home court. They were absolutely destroyed by the Thunder in Game 1, and I expect more of the same here in Game two with Dallas missing their top two points guards.

Must Read: Handicapper Matthew Jordan's Prediction For This Game

The ball handling duties will be taken over by Raymond Felton and Devin Harris. Both of which are capable point guards, but neither of them are going to be able to slow down Russell Westbrook, and neither of them are going to be able to handle the tough defensive pressure the Thunder put on in Game 1.

If OKC brings their defense again tonight, I expect another easy win. With their point guard problems, Dallas is averaging only 91 points per game in their last five dating back to the regular season.

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Free NBA Pick: Thunder -13.5 (-102)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Rockets vs. Warriors
Another game with big injury implications is the Warriors and the Rockets. Stephen Curry hurt his ankle in Game 1 in a blowout win against Houston, and now he could be in danger of missing this game.

The Warriors can easily beat the Rockets without Curry anyway, so the Warriors could play it cautious here and hold him out for a game. Curry has had plenty of ankle problems in his career, and considering the Warriors have title aspirations, don’t be surprised if Curry sits this one out.

If and only if Curry sits tonight, there is definitely some value in the NBA odds boards. Right now the sportsbooks have the Warriors as -13 favorites, but it’s the total of 218 points that I am a little more excited about.

We saw Game 1 easily cash the under, and while the Warriors are more known for their offense, their defense has been pretty good this season as well. If Shaun Livingston starts for Curry, that defense will only improve. However, the Warriors also obviously lose a ton on offense if Curry sits out.

This season when Curry is on the floor, the Warriors have the best Offensive Rating of any team at over 114 points per 100 possessions. However, when Curry sits out that number drops to just over 103.

This total has already dropped several points from where it opened at 221 1/2, and if Curry does indeed sit out tonight, it will drop even more. I am ready to make a play on the under now, and hope that Curry sits this one out as a precaution to give us some more value with the under.

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Free NBA Pick: 'Under' 218 (-103)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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