NBA Picks Of The Day: Sharp's Best Value Plays For Sunday's Card

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, February 21, 2016 2:50 PM GMT

Bad luck has followed me out of the All Star Break, but I am still confident we can right the ship tonight with two more of my NBA Picks of the Day for Sunday's betting card.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors
Usually when you’re handicapping totals, one of the first things you look at after the total and a team’s injuries is their pace. These two teams play at two of the slowest paces of any team in the league. However, with a total of 201 points, and a spread of -8½ in favor of the Raptors, the sportsbooks are making this tough on us.

Outside of pace however, the other indicators for this total are screaming for the over. These two teams went on great offensive stretches before the break, and it seems like they have brought their offenses with them after vacation. The Grizzlies made some great moves at the deadline as well to deepen their offensive stockpile. All in all, if the Grizzlies are content to play faster without Gasol, which we saw right before the break, this game could get into the 100s for both clubs, making the over the play.

The Grizzlies put up 109 points against the Wolves two nights ago, and they did in in 82 shots, which is a lot for this team. However, they have been playing faster than their pace shows recently, and it’s done wonders for their offense. Memphis has scored 107 points per game in their last ten games, and they have scored at least 109 points in three of their last four.

Although the Raptors have lost their last two games straddling the break, Toronto is also scoring about 106 points per game in their last ten games, and both teams in this one have given up 101 per game in their last ten. The over has also now cashed in 14 of the last 16 games for the Grizzlies, as well as five of their last six games on the road. The Raptors on the other hand have cashed the over in four of their last five, so add it to your NBA picks tonight.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 201½
Best Line Offered: at WagerWeb

 

Pacers vs. Magic
Both of these teams are coming off of big wins against Western Conference opponents, as the Magic took care of the Mavs while the Pacers got one of their biggest wins to date over the Thunder. Now they play one another from the Amway Center, and the NBA odds have the Magic as a -1½ favorite in this one, with a total of 200½.

Indiana has owned the Magic this season and last as well. Orlando has a good team, but their trade of Tobias Harris signaled they are still in the midst of a rebuild, and would prefer to get some minutes for their young players. While that seems like a good move for the future, it may not be great for their stellar ATS record they have accumulated over the first half. In fact, the Pacers look like a bargain as slight underdogs here on the road.

Betting the Pacers on the road this season has been tough, but it’s mainly been tough against Western teams. Indiana is an impressive 21-9 ATS in conference games this season, and they are 9-5 ATS this season when playing on the road in conference games.

On top of that, the Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Magic, and while Orlando is still favored for some reason, they are only 5-16 SU in their last 21 games heading into this one. It’s much easier for me to trust the Pacers in this one, who should be able to counter their lack of size against Orlando somewhat easily.

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Free NBA Pick: Pacers +1½ 
Best Line Offered: at Bodog