NBA Picks of the Day: Profit with These Value ATS & Total Plays for Rockets vs. Warriors Game 2

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, May 21, 2015 12:29 PM GMT

We hit the dirt last night with our NBA Picks, but if this postseason has taught me anything, that normally means a good night is not far off. So far throughout the NBA Playoffs I’m 34-23-2, and I have two more picks for tonight’s WCF to get us back on track. 

Spread Pick
For a minute in the first quarter of Game 1 it looked as if Golden State might have finally gotten taken by the moment. While Houston looked locked in early in Game 1, Golden State looked timid and a little scared of the moment. However that quickly faded, as the MVP took over, and the rest was history. However that first quarter showing from Golden State allowed the Rockets to easily cover in this one.

Now the NBA betting odds once again have them as +10 ½ underdogs, and one big factor tonight is limiting our decision-making ability for this spread. Dwight Howard sprained his knee and did not return to the game in the second half of Game 1, and he is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Although the Rockets still play pretty well without him, it’s going to hurt their rebounding. Clint Capella has played well in his absence, but the drop-off from the two is still noticeable.

The drop-off was also noticeable when the Warriors went small, and I think that might be the deciding factor tonight. If Howard can’t play, the Warriors will have no problem going small with Draymond Green at the five. This lineup killed the Rockets because everywhere you looked there was a mismatch on some level, and it really stretched the Rockets defense. Shaun Livingston went off, and all the Warriors need is one player other than Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to score big, and they will cover this spread. However, if Howard plays I am going to lay off the spread entirely, so wait until we have word before placing your bets.

NBA Pick: Warriors -10 ½ at The Greek

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Total Pick
We were on pace to cash the over in Game 1, but both teams came out cold to start the second half, and we slipped just three points under the total. The sportsbooks realized this, and even though the total went under in Game 1, I guess it was too close of a call for them, so they raised the total to 220 for Game 2.

If Howard misses tonight, the Rockets will have no choice but to match the Warriors speed and smaller size in the post, and that is advantage to the over. However if Howard plays, the Rockets will be able to counter the small lineup, and the under could be the play. However even if Howard plays, he likely will be far from 100% after that knee sprain. His mobility will probably be limited, and the Rockets could just sit him anyway if he is ineffective.

It makes handicapping this total difficult, but in the end I think Howard sits, I think the Warriors score about 125 points, and the over cashes. The Rockets have cashed the over in six of their last eight-playoff games, and in five of their last six road playoff games, and it’s mainly been because of their defense. 220 points is a lot, but the slow start to the 3rd quarter in Game 1 really hurt us. I am going to go back to it one more time before I reassess. Take the over and add it to your NBA picks.

NBA Pick: OVER 220  at Bovada

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