NBA Picks Of The Day: Play & Win As Teams Meet Playoffs Verge

Jordan Sharp

Friday, April 29, 2016 2:51 PM GMT

Friday, Apr. 29, 2016 2:51 PM GMT

Unfortnately, our plays last night went down the toilet. However, I am ready to bounce back tonight with a much more valuable slate on the NBA Odds.

Heat vs. Hornets
The one constant of this series has been a slow pace and lower scoring games. In tonight’s must-win game for both teams, I expect nothing less from both sides. Both have been good defensive teams all season, and both have been playing pretty slowly over the last few games. Game 5 was played at a pace of 95.9, and before that the average pace of the two games in Charlotte were about 90 possessions per 48 minutes.

Even with the total plummeting now to 190 points, that won’t be enough to go over still. These two teams are going to be locked in on defense, and that has been the case with most elimination games in the first round of the playoffs.

While the under is just 2-2-1 this postseason in first round elimination games, last season the under was 10-3 in first round elimination games where one or both teams were facing elimination. It was especially true in the Eastern Conference, where if it wasn’t for the Raptors not showing up in their series elimination game, the under would have been a perfect 6-0 in the Eastern Conference.

That being said, this game is probably going to be very physical, and in Charlotte, I doubt the Heat have the same success on offense. Miami scored only 80 and 85 points respectfully in those two games, and the Charlotte defense has figured them out. Miami has not touched 90 points in the last three games, and they might not again here tonight.

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Free NBA Pick: UNDER 190
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

 

Clippers vs. Blazers
Unfortunately for the Clippers, their season is probably over before Game 6 tonight in Portland. They are looking at a summer of uncertainty, and while they probably aren’t as demoralized as the Rockets were the other night, this game in Portland might get ugly. However, that could play into our favor. The Clippers are big +10 underdogs in this one, with a total of 198 points.

After the Blazers dropped 108 points on them in LA, they should easily be able to duplicate that here at home. Even though the two games in this series at Portland were really low scoring, the Clippers’ defense has taken a downturn without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. In Game 5, the Blazers had an Offensive Rating of 110.4, and they played the game at a pretty fast pace of 97.9.

That will likely continue here tonight, and with the Clippers down on themselves, I think this game is perfect for a teaser. Teasing the Blazers down to -6, and taking the over at 194 should be a great value. The Blazers will continue to have a much easier time scoring on LA here at home, and the Clippers will be forced to play up in pace due to their half court offense being in shambles. This is my best play of the night on the NBA odds. And even though that hasn’t meant much recently, I am still 15-13 in the playoffs. I'm backing the over as my NBA pick for Friday night. 

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Free NBA Pick: Blazers -6 & OVER 194
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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