With the exception of Dallas at Golden State, we have some relatively low NBA betting totals on the board. Let's take a look an see which totals will give us the greatest edge when attempting to make a profit on Wednesday night's games.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz
Grizzlies Defense Produces Unders
In my last installment of picking the totals, I went 2-0 and one of the games was the Memphis Grizzlies against the high scoring Phoenix Suns. Odds makers create a lower total in Grizzlies games and I took the bait and hit on the under. Due to Memphis top defense in the league, you're almost always going to benefit when taking the under as your NBA pick. It's just a matter of where the betting total is placed at.
Utah isn't a high scoring team. Despite scoring 100 points or more against the Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trail Blazers, the Jazz average 96 points per game, which is actually below average for an NBA team despite the great play of their leading scorer, Gordon Hayward.
We take a look at the trends, which is something that I don't always do, but it's undeniable; Grizzlies games have been going under the total on a regular occurrence. Let's take a look at some of the trends.
Under is 7-0-1 in last 8 Grizzlies games
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 Grizzlies games in which the Grizzlies are playing on one day's rest
Under is 3-0-1 in games after the Grizzlies scored 100 points or more
Head to Head Matchups
Under is 6-0 when these teams have faced in Utah
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 matchups between these two teams
Everything points to an under. It's all about the total, which is not too high or low. Look for Memphis to take advantage offensively and defensively against a young team that's not an established winner.
NBA Pick- Under 189.5 at 5 Dimes
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
How High Can They Go?
This game just screams over the total when you have two elite offenses and defense is secondary. Who knows; Maybe Klay Thompson will go beastmode again and score 37 points in a quarter. When you have a guy that's capable of scoring 37 points in a quarter and he isn't even the #1 option on your team, you know that this team can score points and that's why this game is the highest point total on the board.
Dallas fits in right along with Golden State as they average 106.8 points per game which is good for 2nd in the NBA while allowing 101 points. The only team that scores more than the Mavs is the Golden State Warriors who average an amazing 111 points per game. The Warriors are coming off of a 121-96 victory over the Sacramento Kings. If they can put up 121 on a Cousins-led team, Tyson Chandler won't be able to stop them from scoring down in the paint despite his great defensive ability.
Simply stated, there are a ton of offensive options in this game. Dallas has Monta Ellis who is a major offensive threat at 20.5 points per game. Ellis has taken over for Dirk Nowitzki as the go to guy as Dirk's minutes have lessened due to age. Nonetheless, Nowitzki still has a lot left in the tank and in a game in which the Mavericks are challenged, expect to see a lot of Dirk. The total is high on the NBA odds, but for good reason. Take the over as you have the two top offenses in the NBA.
NBA Pick- Over -217 at BetOnline