It was a rough night for our NBA Picks last night, but we are still 27-16-2 so far, and I think we can get back on track tonight. There are 2 more Game 5’s tonight, & one is an elimination game!
Bulls vs. Cavaliers
We’ll start out east, where both series are tied at 2-2, and heading into pivotal Game 5’s. The Bulls and Cavs stole games from one another in Chicago, and now they head into Cleveland with victory on the brain. The NBA betting odds have the Bulls as +5 ½ road dogs here in this one, with a total of 191.
In this type of game with this type of total, the scoring might be at a premium. That could give us an opportunity at some value. So far in this series, both times the underdog has cashed, the under has also cashed. In this potentially lower scoring game, and with the Bulls as solid underdogs, I am taking the points here.
The Cavs lost or pushed ATS in their last game depending on where you got that line, but either way you look at it, they are either 1-6 or 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Conference Semi Finals games. The Bulls on the other hand are either 3-1 or 2-1-1 ATS so far in this series, and 4-1 ATS in their last five second round playoff games. Plus, Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games, and with how banged up Cleveland looks, I see them putting their foot down tonight. Even if Pau Gasol can’t play, the Bulls have played as good on the road as they have at home so far in the playoffs, and as +5 ½ underdogs, they are slightly undervalued here.
NBA Pick: Bulls +5 ½ at 5Dimes
Clippers vs. Rockets
The Rockets have now been blown out in a majority of the games so far this season, and even though they are dealing with a banged up Chris Paul, and an opposing bench that isn’t as deep as theirs, the Rockets still find themselves getting beat up. However even though they’re down 3-1, and even though they face elimination tonight, the Rockets are still only +3 underdogs in this one, with a total of 218 ½.
Even though the total in this one just keep rising, we still haven’t met the point where the over was a bad play. Even with this game being an elimination game, the Rockets won’t just magically find a way to slow down the Clippers offense in Game 5, if they haven’t done it already. The Clippers are averaging 119.5 points per game in this series so far, and even if they get just 109, the over still might be the best play for this game.
Dating back to the regular season, the over is 5-0 for the Rockets the game after giving up at least 125 to their previous opponent. Plus the over is 10-2 for Houston in their last 12 home games, and it’s cashed in five games in a row for LA dating back to the first round.
The only problem with this is that so far elimination games have been golden for the under. In the playoffs this season, the under is 8-4-1 during games in which at least one team is facing elimination. However, if you look deeper into that, you’ll notice that most of those unders were from the Bulls and Bucks series, where there were three elimination games and all of them went under. That was a very defensive series, with the final score ending at 120-66, still cashing the over. Take those three games away and the under is only 5-4-1 in elimination games. That being said, I see the over being the NBA pick between these two teams once again. I said this last game, but I’ll say it again, the Rockets can’t play that badly again, especially now at home.
NBA Pick: OVER 218 ½ at The Greek