NBA Picks Of The Day: Our Prime Total Plays To Start A Winning Week

Jordan Sharp

Monday, January 4, 2016 2:55 PM GMT

It’s the beginning of a new week here at SBR, and it’s once again time to release our NBA Picks of the Day. Find out my two really valuable plays from the stacked Monday of NBA Odds.

Pacers vs. Heat
These two teams may be the second and third best teams in their conference right now behind Cleveland, and while both have their flaws, they are both still very good teams. Tonight we get a chance to see them in action against one another for the third time this season, and tonight the NBA odds have the Pacers as +1½ road underdogs, with a total of 192 points.

This total has been free falling ever since it opened last night, and it has since come down from 194 points. While I don’t always follow the line movement of totals, I am following the movement of this one and recommending the under between these two standout defensive teams. While the Pacers play at the 8th fastest pace of all the teams in the league, their Defensive Efficiency is still at 98.7, which is also a top ten rating this year.

The Heat on the other hand play at one of the slowest paces of any team, but their DRtg is also just above Indiana at 98.5. This makes the under look like an even better play tonight, because despite losing some of the value from the total lowering, this one still could be a low enough scoring game to cash the under.

The two times these two have played one another this season, the total went under both times, and in both cases Miami failed to reach 90 points. Both those games were in Indiana, but the Heat may still struggle to score against the Pacers at home. The under has now cashed in nine of the last 11 games for Indiana, and in five of the last seven games overall for the Heat. While they’ve had some defensive hiccups, the Pacers have limited three of their last five opponents to less than 90 points, and it could happen again tonight.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882973, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Under 192
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Celtics vs. Nets
Because the Celtics own the Nets’ pick this season because of that horribly lopsided Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trade, these games between these two divisional rivals have been stellar this season. Tonight I expect nothing less from both sides, as the NBA Odds favor Boston in this one at -7½, with a total of 202½.

While the spread is very inviting, the Nets get up to play the Celtics more than any other team it seems, so I am betting on the total once again for my NBA picks today. Boston has not been great at cashing the over recently or on the road, however in their three meetings against the Nets this season, the Celtics are averaging 106 points per game, and going up against the Nets who have given up nearly 105 points per game in their last ten games, the total going over seems like a pretty good play. The total cashed the over in two of the three games between these two this season, and seeing as this will likely be the final meeting between these two unless the Nets make an incredible playoff push, the total should go over again.

The over is 4-2 in Brooklyn’s last six games overall, and even though they lost Jarrett Jack for the remainder of the season, they will still be able to score some points in this one with Shane Larkin running the point. I see a final score where both teams easily get into the 100s tonight, so take the over on this Atlantic Division game tonight.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882974, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Over 202½ 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

Looking For More Total NBA Picks? Don't Miss:
Rockets vs. Jazz
Raptors vs. Cavaliers