NBA Picks Of The Day: Fatigue Factors To Consider Betting With Today

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 6, 2016 12:45 PM GMT

We split a pair of NBA picks, and now it’s time to release two more valuable wagers for Wednesday’s slate of NBA odds. Check out Pistons vs. Magic and Pelicans vs. Celtics. 

Pistons vs. Magic
Despite losing last night, the Pistons didn’t lose any ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race thanks to the Bulls once again losing, so coming into tonight they still have a nice two game cushion for the 8th seed in the East. Tonight they head into Orlando for the classic Miami-Orlando back to back. The NBA Odds are actually favoring the Magic here at -2 home favorites, however, the total of 208 ½ seems like a much more inviting wager.

Even though the Pistons are coming off the back to back, that has served them well in the second half of the season cashing the over. Despite the fact that they have cashed the under in their two most recent back to backs, Orlando has been playing at a lightening pace since the All Star Break, and if you ignore those last two back to back games against Chicago and Atlanta, the Pistons have cashed the over in nine of their last 10 back to back games.

The Magic on the other hand have been tearing it up recently. They have cashed the over in their last two games, and they have scored an average of 119 points per game in their last five games heading into this one. I doubt the Pistons will be slowed down by Orlando’s defense, and considering the Pistons have been giving up a ton of points on no rest outside of those last two, one of which had playoff implications, I see the over being the play here in this one. The over has cashed in four games in a row between these teams, including both this season.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 208.5 (-103)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Pelicans vs. Celtics
While the Celtics are still fighting for a home game to start the playoffs, after playing last night the Pelicans are just playing for lottery balls. Tonight the sportsbooks recognize this, as they have Boston as a -14 favorite, with a total of 208 ½. With the Pelicans coming off the back to back, it seems like Boston has them right where they want them. New Orleans is fielding basically a D-League team coming into Boston on no rest, and the Celtics are pretty much healthy in this one.

While Boston may not have Evan Turner tonight, they do still have Jae Crowder back in action, and they should have Avery Bradley as well. However, the Celtics have been a pretty bad ATS team over the last month. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games ATS heading into this one, and while they are 3-3 ATS at home during that stretch, I am concerned about a back door cover.

Instead, I think the safer play is on the under. Not only does New Orleans have an excellent track record of cashing the under on the road this season, the Pelicans are 12-3-1 cashing the under on no rest this season Combine their excellent under cashing records off back to backs and on the road with the Celtics home defense, and the under looks like a great play.

Boston needs this game and they likely won’t mess around with an inferior Pelicans team. Boston has cashed the under in seven of their last nine home games, and if you take away their game this past month against the Thunder in Boston, the Celtics have given up only 94 points in eight of their last nine home games.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 208.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage