NBA Picks Of The Day: Exploiting Today's Profitable Value Plays

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, December 8, 2015 3:52 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2015 3:52 PM UTC

After a 2-1 Monday night of NBA Picks, I'm back for Tuesday's action with more NBA Picks of the day. Even with the short slate of NBA Odds I've found a lot of value to exploit for profitability.

Warriors vs. Pacers
While I don’t think this is the night where the Warriors go down, the Pacers present a tough match that should not be overlooked. The Dubs have been playing in closer games with each passing win, and Indiana has the personnel to give the Warriors a game. The NBA Odds have the Warriors as -6 road favorites in this one, with a total of 215, and while the total is really inviting tonight, I think taking the points with Indiana is actually a good play.

While they likely won’t win SU, the Pacers have already been very good ATS this season. We predicted this offseason that the return of Paul George would go overlooked a little by bettors and even sportsbooks, and on the year Indiana is 12-7 ATS and SU. Golden State is 2-1 ATS on the road against the East this road trip, and they are 4-3 ATS against the East overall this season, but the Pacers will be their toughest test of the year so far.

Toronto is a solid opponent, but on the road in the Fieldhouse tonight is going to be a playoff-like atmosphere. Indianapolis is already a tough place to play for teams coming in. Combine that with this being one of the lowest spreads the Warriors have faced all year, and the odds are good for Indiana tonight. After starting the year 0-3 SU and ATS, the Pacers have covered in 12 of their last 16 games, and despite losing their last three of four ATS, all four of those games were on a West coast road trip, and at home this year the Pacers are 5-3 ATS.

Another big factor for this game is the injury to Harrison Barnes, who would normally have been the number one candidate to try and guard George tonight. George Hill will at least be a solid defender to throw at Stephen Curry, and with a Defensive Rating (DRtg) at 5th in the league at 100.5, Indiana should be ready for whatever the Warriors have offensively. Indiana, along with Golden State, are two of only five teams who currently rank inside the Top 10 in both DRtg and ORtg. Look for a close game, and possibly the Warriors being in danger of losing SU.

NBA Pick: Pacers +6 (+102) at Pinnacle

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Magic vs. Nuggets
In what should be the most overlooked game of the night, the Magic head into Denver to have some mile high fun against the Nuggets. The Magic have started to figure some things out recently, and the sportsbooks have noticed tonight, making them -3 ½ road favorites in Denver, with a total of 198. Orlando recently had their five-game SU and ATS winning streak broken by the Clippers, but they could easily get back on track tonight. Bringing Victor Oladipo off the bench has done a lot for this team on both ends of the court, but it has namely improved their offense. In their last six games, the Magic are averaging 104 points per game, and I think it translates into a lot more points tonight against the Nuggets.

Denver ranks 25th in the league in DRtg at nearly 108, and the Magic’s newfound efficiency is going to exploit that tonight even on the road in the altitude. Despite the fact that this is lowest total of the evening, I’m going over with my final NBA Pick. Orlando and Denver are still around the middle of the pack when it comes to pace at 98.4, and I expect the Magic to drop another 105 points tonight too, which should lead to the over being the play.

NBA Pick: Magic & Nuggets OVER 198 (-105) at Heritage

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