NBA Picks Of The Day: Double Down On Hawks vs. Celtics Totals Odds

Thursday, April 28, 2016 3:17 PM GMT

We split a pair of our NBA picks last night, missing on our teaser for the second night in a row. However, I am still 15-11 in these playoffs, and looking to make our profits go up here tonight.

Hawks vs. Celtics
The Celtics may have physically traveled to Game 5 in Atlanta, but they did not show up. The Hawks dominated them in every facet of the game, and to make matters worse, in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter, Isaiah Thomas sprained his ankle. We can debate until we are blue in the face as to whether he should have been out there in the first place, but he has said he will play tonight no matter what.

The sportsbooks however, are not buying it. The NBA odds boards have the Hawks as -2 road favorites, with a total of 197½. With the recent news on Thomas positive, I expect him to play, and that should improve the C’s chances of actually having a good game on offense tonight. Boston’s Offensive Rating in their two playoff games at home is nearly 103, but that number is 92 when they play in Atlanta.

The problem with that has been the Hawks’ defense, but in the two games in Boston, the Celtics tried to speed them up as much as possible, especially in Game 3. I think the strategy for Game 6 will be similar. Boston had a lot of success pushing the ball in transition after getting turnovers, and while I expect both teams to bring their defense tonight, for the Celtics that could lead to turnovers and fast break opportunities.

Even Game 5 in Atlanta had a very fast pace of 97.4 possessions per 48 minutes, but the Boston offense was simply not ready to play. Back at home, that should change some, and considering the Hawks have an Offensive Rating of over 100 in three of the five games in this series, I think a game where both teams get into the 100s is likely.

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Free NBA Pick: 'Over' 197½ (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


 

First Half
Much like the game line, the first half total of 95 points also seems to have some nice value. In the last three games of this series, the Hawks have been very consistent with their points in the first half.

For the series, Atlanta is averaging 47 points per first half, and while the Celtics have had some bad first halves in this series, back at home the Celtics have been very good scoring the ball in the first half. They are averaging nearly 52 points per first half in their two home games this series, and while 50 points may be asking a lot, both teams could still get in the high 40s and cash the over on this play.

Atlanta scored 45 and 48 points in the first halves of the two games in Boston, and even in the last game in Boston that went into overtime, both teams put up a ton of shots.

The two teams combined for 194 total shots in Game 4 of this series, and 95 of them came in the first half of that game. Even in the fast paced Game 3, there were less shots taken in the game and first half than that, so if some of those shots are falling here in Game 6, I look for the first half to go over as wellas my NBA pick.

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Free NBA Pick: 'Over' 95 (-110) 1H
Best Line Offered: at Bovada