After learning about Dwight Howard playing yesterday, I stayed away from the Point Spread odds. So far with my Playoffs NBA picks, I’m 34-24-2 & shoot for more with the Hawks and Cavs game tonight.
A horrible third quarter for the Hawks led to a collapse in Game 1, however even after losing Game 1, the Hawks are still -2 NBA Odds favorites in tonight’s game. However with the potential loss of DeMarre Carroll for this game and maybe longer, the Hawks have exactly zero solid wing defenders left in this series. Even though Carroll had no structural damage to his knee, it looked bad enough to say that his chances of playing tonight might not be very good. Even though Kent Bazemore is an adequate replacement, he is not big enough to defend Lebron James.
That being said, even on the road tonight I have to go with the Cavs. I’m assuming Carroll doesn’t play, but even if he does, I can’t see James relaxing on this team. He knows by watching the Western Conference Finals on his off nights that the Cavs are going to need all the rest they can get in the NBA Finals, and even though I’m getting way ahead of myself, the Hawks’ lack of a go-to player seems to be finally catching up to them.
Atlanta is only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites dating back to the regular season, and they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Also dating back to the last two postseasons, the Hawks are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14-playoff games as favorites. The Cavs on the other hand are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games versus a team with a winning home record.
NBA Pick: Cavs +2 at BetOnline
After the under cashed in Game 1 of this series the NBA odds total has come back for Game 2 a point lower than the last game at 196. After cashing the over against one another in three games in a row to start the regular season, the under has now cashed in their last two meetings, once in the postseason and one back in March. However one thing I missed on last game was how good the Cavs defense has been, and now potentially without Carroll’s three-point shooting, the Cavs’ defense might be even better tonight.
The Cavs have only given up 92 points per game so far in the playoffs, and it’s shown in the under cashing for them. Cleveland has cashed the under in seven of their last ten playoffs games, and six of their last seven road playoff games. The Hawks on the other hand have cashed the under at 5-2 in their last seven playoff games as home favorites this season, and if you date back even further, the under is 16-6 in their last 22 playoff games as favorites. The Cavs’ defense and with the potential lack of one of their best shooters, (Kyle Korver is in a playoff slump for the ages) the Hawks are going to be hurt on offense tonight just like in the second half of Game 1. Out of the remaining four teams, the Hawks and Cavs have the best two Defensive Ratings. Take under tonight and add it to your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: UNDER 196