NBA Picks of the Day: Best Plays for Tonight's Spurs/Clippers Series Closer

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, May 2, 2015 11:58 AM GMT

It’s Game 7 time for the first time in these playoffs, and it couldn’t come in a better series. The Spurs head back to Los Angeles for one more chance to move on to the second round, and the NBA Odds have them as a +2 ½ underdog tonight, with a total of 204.

Spurs vs. Clippers Total
With a total of 204, this game should be very close to that number. With the exception of Game 3 where the Clippers didn’t show up, these two teams have been hovering around a total of 200 points for the entire series. The total is 3-3 so far throughout the series as well, which has made it incredibly difficult to handicap. However, I think for this game, since it’s a Game 7, and since it means the continuation of a legacy for the Spurs, or the start of one for the Clippers, these two teams are going to bring the noise on defense tonight.

So far these two teams have met ten times including the regular season, and the total is 5-5. However dating back to the regular season, the under has cashed in five of the Clippers last seven games at home, and in eight of their last 12 games dating back to the regular season. The Spurs on the other hand have gone over the total a little more recently, but most of the overs came in the regular season, where they were mowing over non-playoff and playoff teams alike near the end of the season.

So for this NBA pick, I see the under being the play. The under is 10-4 for the Clippers in their last 14 games as home favorites, and I see them and the Spurs clamping down on defense to try and move on to play the Rockets in the second round.

NBA Pick: UNDER 203

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Click here to check out another capper's take on tonights lone matchup!

Spurs vs. Clippers Spread
The NBA odds have the Clippers as only -2 ½ favorites in this one, and while I am very tempted to lay the points, I originally picked the Spurs to win this series in seven games, and I am sticking to it. Game 7s are all about experience and poise, and in that department, the Spurs win hands down. However while the Clippers have the home court advantage and the momentum after winning in San Antonio in Game 6, I think the Spurs will come back with a vengeance and return the favor.

The Clippers are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites dating back to the regular season, and at home not only in this series but also some in the regular season as well, they are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. On top of that, they are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as playoff favorites.

The Spurs on the other hand are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss, and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games following an ATS loss. The Spurs are also 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games dating back to the month of March, and more telling is they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as playoff underdogs. I expect the Spurs to come back from their loss in Game 6 two nights ago to beat the Clippers, and advance on to the battle of Texas in the West semi finals. Take the points.

NBA Pick: Spurs +2 ½ 

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