We barely missed cashing last night NBA picks. However I am back again tonight with more action from tonight’s Eastern Conference finals NBA Odds, and so far during the NBA Playoffs, I am 34-21-2.
Tonight’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 1 features the top two teams in the East from the regular season. While some think that Lebron James and Kyrie Irving are going to run through the Hawks, I’m not sure if that’s the mindset we should have looking at this series. Even though they were able to come back in the second half last night, we saw first hand how overvalued teams can get at this time in the year. We easily cashed on the Rockets ATS last night, and while the Hawks are favored by -1 in the NBA odds tonight, I think the sportsbooks are trying to get bettors to take the point with Cleveland tonight because of the Lebron factor.
Because of this I am going to lay the one point with the home team. Even with Lebron on the floor, this team has proven they can beat the Cavs this season, and even though regular season wins don’t mean as much once you’re at this stage, the lack of home court advantage in Game 1 might be too much for them to handle. The Cavs are only 2-4 ATS in their last six-playoff games, and dating back to last season, the Cavs are only 1-7 SU against Atlanta in their last eight games against one another, and the Hawks are 5-0 in their last five home games against Cleveland. Even though the Hawks haven’t been great ATS recently either, they look like a profitable NBA pick here and should be able to give the Cavs enough problems to win the game.
The total for this Game 1 is actually a little more interesting. While the NBA Odds for the spread are low and basically a coin flip, the total is sitting at 197 points tonight, which from afar seems like it could be valuable tonight. These two teams both have the ability to score on one another, and depending on the pace of this game, that could mean the over is going to be another really good play. The Hawks’ totals have been tough to predict this postseason, however the Cavs have cashed the over in three of their last five games against the Bulls. Other than Game 5 of that series the total went over because the number was too low, and I see that happening here in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The over has cashed in six of the last seven times these two teams have squared off dating back to last season, and it almost went 7-0 if it wasn’t for the final game they played against one another. In just their four meetings against one another this season, at least one team scored 100 points, and in the first two meetings each team took turns scoring 127 points in a blowout win. If one of these teams gets into the 100-point range, the likelihood of the total going over is very good.
My NBA Picks: Hawks -1 & OVER 197 at BetOnline.